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[找工就业] 来自Quora的讨论:How long will demand for CS graduates be high?

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pyx115 发表于 2014-10-25 20:11:47 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


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How long will demand for CS graduates and computer engineering graduates be high?
http://www.quora.com/How-long-wi ... g-graduates-be-high

Clinton Staley, CS prof and software developer... (more) 103 upvotes by Aline Lerner, Michele Adduci, (more)

This is a very thoughtful and useful question to ask right now.  I've been around long enough to see three booms in demand for software developers (counting the present one) and two crashes of varying severity that followed each of the prior two.   In 1983, CS grads were getting multiple job offers in the middle of a recession.  In 1990, it was "will code for food".  In 1999, developers owned the world.  In 2004 it was back to "will code for food".... 鏉ユ簮涓浜.涓夊垎鍦拌鍧.

Now, my crystal ball is as foggy as the next guy's, and history doesn't always repeat itself.  If I knew the economic future, I'd go make a killing in stocks instead of teaching and writing code :).  But I do have a fairly long perspective from both the academic and industrial viewpoint, and I predicted the current shortage of software talent back in 2007.  (I thought it would hit by 2010, because I didn't predict that little recession we had -- oh well :))  And as a CS professor, I have a ringside seat at the supply end of the equation, watching incoming freshman CS enrollment.

So, with that said, here is the limited advice I can offer:-google 1point3acres

1. Don't assume the boom will last forever.  Maybe it will, but that would be a historical first.  Demand rises, so prices go up, so supply rises, so prices go down.  That's the way markets work.
. visit 1point3acres.com for more.
2. The supply of software talent will start rising seriously in about 3-4 years.  The latest incoming freshmen are highly talented, and numerous.  All those "learn to code" movements, and all the press about developer shortages, are having an effect.  The big unknown is whether demand will increase apace.

3. If you're really good at development, that helps a lot.  I cannot recall any top student of mine who was out of work, even at the nadir of the dot-com-bomb in 2004 or so.  Weak and mediocre devs, however, are in trouble in a downturn.
. visit 1point3acres.com for more.
So, in summary, make hay while the sun shines -- get the good dev job, and do a good job at it, while it's easy to do so.  And *don't* go into software just because it's a hot field now.  It may not be in a half decade.  Do it because you love to code, and you're good at it.  You'll probably be OK, even in a downturn, if so..1point3acres缃
Dan Paik, Tech Guy5 upvotes by Mehmet Taygur, Brian Mick, Samsad Ch, (more)
. 鐗涗汉浜戦泦,涓浜╀笁鍒嗗湴

I think demand will be high for the next 5-7 years and then will wane.

Like most things in life, this is about supply and demand.  Demand is set by $ so as companies like Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, etc. continue to grow year after year, the demand for software engineers will continue to grow.  It's also not only large companies because as the big companies do well, they acquire small companies so startups flourish which means VCs flourish, etc.  Growth is still strong in tech companies although some will say that they aren't growing as fast as they were before.

On the supply side, there are more and more students going into college with the aspiration become a software engineer.  Remember the 80s when everyone wanted to go to med school?  Well, now everyone wants to be an engineer.  There are thousands of schools around the world that are teaching Computer Science to graduate the next set of engineers.  There are thousands of students graduating every year ready to take on the demand.  

I say 5-7 years because with the demand high but rising at a slower rate than before and the number of CS grads increasing year after year, it will hit an equilibrium.

I went to college in 1991 when there was a recession and most of my fellow CS classmates felt that there would be work but not much work when we graduate.  The word on the street was that companies laid off people and found a way to work with less people so even if the economy gets better, they still wouldn't hire us.  I studied CS because I liked it and was good at it.

However, I will be bold and venture to say that there is no shortage of engineers today.  I spent the last 10  years actively hiring for the companies where I worked and for every software engineer opening, I got hundreds of resumes.  There's no shortage of engineers.  However, not all of them can get jobs because there is a shortage of good engineers.  Anyone can read a book or take a few classes and send a resume saying that he/she is now a software engineer but it takes a lot of work, intellect, and experience to become a great software engineer.  Heck, some people have told me that many interview candidates can't even code fizz-buzz and when I ask a simple binary search question, most of my interview candidates get it really wrong.  That's just the basic stuff.  Great software engineers will always be in high demand.

Cameron Askew, Software Engineer & Entrepreneur3 upvotes by William Emmanuel Yu, Andrew Jordaan, and Anilkumar Panda.

Demand will definitely increase
Older generations rarely use devices and apps while toddlers demand phones and tablets from their parents. Here's a pretty chart..

. from: 1point3acres.com/bbs

This chart is just for the USA. In other countries, there's more room for growth.-google 1point3acres

Supply will definitely increase
CS and CE are becoming more popular fields of study. And learning them is becoming easier and more accessible. More people are interested and those who previously would have no means of learning now will.

For now, I think demand will increase more quickly
Software is still in its infancy. It's a type of product the world has never seen before. It costs almost the same to produce a piece of software for one person as it does for one million people. It's so replicate-able, it's beautiful. There are so many improvements software will bring to the world in the next century, it's ridiculous. As a software developer, you start to see things differently - you see ten things a day that could be automated much better than they are with a simple piece of software. It seems everybody has an app idea that they just need a developer to bring to fruition.

.1point3acres缃But don't pursue a degree just for these reasons
Make sure you like it and you're good at it too. Yes, salaries in these fields are and will be very nice, but there are other skills the world will need. And if you're really good at whatever it is, money will follow.

. From 1point 3acres bbs

. 1point3acres.com/bbs

. From 1point 3acres bbs
Ed Tao1 upvote by Ilija Pavlic.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say now. Google missed sales forecasts, a sign their growth is slowing. No disrespect for the talented people that work there, but Adwords accounts for over 95% of their profits, which makes them a one-trick pony. Shareholders will apply pressure to reduce costs and headcount in a scenario with low growth. They will also question what the tens of thousands of employees are doing, given they only have one money making product.

The compensation at Facebook has also been criticised as being too high by shareholders, too, and it's also a one trick-pony.

Adverts on mobile (the area which had the growth) just don't command enough in revenue. Not sure about other people, but since Google started making it obvious which search results are paid ads, I've been avoiding the paid ads.

. 鐣欏鐢宠璁哄潧-涓浜╀笁鍒嗗湴


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