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[H1B] Adv的H1b中签率是有51%么?

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Pythagoras 发表于 2016-4-19 07:23:36 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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不太看得明白IG上的这个帖子。这是说51%的AD PP抽中了?


[size=14.166666030883789px]As of 4:30 pm central time 4/18/16:

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 51% of our cases filed as AD/PP/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / Vermont Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 60%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 51% of our cases filed as AD/PP/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / California Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 60%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 29% of our cases filed as Non-AD/PP/VT (Non-Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / Vermont Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 35%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 25% of our cases filed as Non-AD/PP/CA (Non-Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / California Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 35%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We did not receive any regular processing notices in the mail today.

.鐣欏璁哄潧-涓浜-涓夊垎鍦
oldbok 发表于 2016-4-19 10:06:40 | 显示全部楼层
lhyqie 发表于 2016-4-19 09:16
这个我详细算过, Adv我用的是immigrationgirl 的数据 ADV 占总人口的64%
算出来的结果
the prob of getti ...
.1point3acres缃
这个取样已经错了,因为reg里面有很大一部分来源于ICC的人员搬运,所以adv人口远不到64%
根据去年IG的中签概率来算,去年adv抽签的人数不到50000
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lhyqie 发表于 2016-4-19 09:16:14 | 显示全部楼层
这个我详细算过, Adv我用的是immigrationgirl 的数据 ADV 占总人口的64%
算出来的结果
the prob of getting the lottery in the ADV round                p1 = 0.132415254237
the prob of getting the lottery in the non-ADV round            p2 = 0.300925925926
the prob of getting the lottery in either ADV or non-ADV round  p3 = 0.393493997175
the prob of getting the lottery at least once for 4 attempts    p4 = 0.864686722203

Python代码如下
# http://immigrationgirl.com/h-1b-lottery-no-news-yet-but-some-statistics-for-you/
# Many have asked what percentage of filings may have been filed under the Advanced Degree exception. From the filings in our office:. 1point 3acres 璁哄潧
# 64% of the petitions we filed were for the Advanced Degree (AD) exception, also known as the master's cap
# 36% of the petitions we filed were for the Regular Cap (Non-AD)

# total petition is 236000
# p1 : the prob of getting the lottery in the ADV round
p1 = 20000./ (236000 * .64)
print 'the prob of getting the lottery in the ADV round                p1 =', p1

# p2 : the prob of getting the lottery in the non-ADV round
p2 = 65000./ (236000 * .64 - 20000 + 236000 * .36)
print 'the prob of getting the lottery in the non-ADV round            p2 =', p2

# p3 : the prob of getting the lottery in either ADV or non-ADV round
p3 = p1 + (1-p1) * p2
print 'the prob of getting the lottery in either ADV or non-ADV round  p3 =', p3 鏉ユ簮涓浜.涓夊垎鍦拌鍧.

# p4 : the prob of getting the lottery at least once for 4 attempts
p4 = 1-(1-p3) ** 4
print 'the prob of getting the lottery at least once for 4 attempts    p4 =', p4
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nunuh89 发表于 2016-4-19 07:25:46 | 显示全部楼层
这是她 自己律所里面的样本 鏉ユ簮涓浜.涓夊垎鍦拌鍧.
.1point3acres缃
不是说 一定就是这个概率 但是能有个参考意义
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good4better 发表于 2016-4-19 07:49:54 | 显示全部楼层
就是试图用sample来解释整体,未必对,但是很有参考意义
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yyz20002008 发表于 2016-4-19 07:58:21 | 显示全部楼层
然并卵........其实
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apricot 发表于 2016-4-19 08:00:05 | 显示全部楼层
如果真的只有50%。。。今年ad的申请人数比去年上涨了50%啊,太夸张了吧
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jeff_xu001 发表于 2016-4-19 08:50:56 | 显示全部楼层
apricot 发表于 2016-4-19 08:00
如果真的只有50%。。。今年ad的申请人数比去年上涨了50%啊,太夸张了吧

sample size 不一定足够的,但起码还有一点希望吧
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jeff_xu001 发表于 2016-4-19 09:31:51 | 显示全部楼层
jeff_xu001 发表于 2016-4-19 08:50
sample size 不一定足够的,但起码还有一点希望吧
.1point3acres缃
IG 说得很明白:Premium processing, non PP 的还没出来
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lhyqie 发表于 2016-4-19 10:33:42 | 显示全部楼层
oldbok 发表于 2016-4-19 10:06
这个取样已经错了,因为reg里面有很大一部分来源于ICC的人员搬运,所以adv人口远不到64%
根据去年IG的中 ...

如果不是64%, 你觉得大概是多少? 我要更新一下概率.
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oldbok 发表于 2016-4-19 10:55:51 | 显示全部楼层
根据IG的预测,如果adv中签率有60%的话,那么今年adv的申请人数会在50000左右
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