<
查看: 6541|回复: 10
收起左侧

[H1B] Adv的H1b中签率是有51%么?

|只看干货
本楼: 👍   0% (0)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   98% (64)
 
 
1% (1)    👎

注册一亩三分地论坛,查看更多干货!

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看附件。没有帐号?注册账号

x
不太看得明白IG上的这个帖子。这是说51%的AD PP抽中了?


[size=14.166666030883789px]As of 4:30 pm central time 4/18/16:

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 51% of our cases filed as AD/PP/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / Vermont Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 60%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 51% of our cases filed as AD/PP/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / California Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 60%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 29% of our cases filed as Non-AD/PP/VT (Non-Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / Vermont Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 35%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We have received email notifications in 25% of our cases filed as Non-AD/PP/CA (Non-Advanced Degree-masters / premium processing / California Service Center) – I think there is still a chance this number could go up to 35%

[size=14.166666030883789px]We did not receive any regular processing notices in the mail today.


oldbok 2016-4-19 10:06:40 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   100% (2)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   87% (7)
 
 
12% (1)    👎
lhyqie 发表于 2016-4-19 09:16
这个我详细算过, Adv我用的是immigrationgirl 的数据 ADV 占总人口的64%
算出来的结果
the prob of getti ...

这个取样已经错了,因为reg里面有很大一部分来源于ICC的人员搬运,所以adv人口远不到64%
根据去年IG的中签概率来算,去年adv抽签的人数不到50000
回复

使用道具 举报

lhyqie 2016-4-19 09:16:14 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   50% (1)
 
 
50% (1)   👎
全局: 👍   95% (62)
 
 
4% (3)    👎
这个我详细算过, Adv我用的是immigrationgirl 的数据 ADV 占总人口的64%
算出来的结果
the prob of getting the lottery in the ADV round                p1 = 0.132415254237
the prob of getting the lottery in the non-ADV round            p2 = 0.300925925926
the prob of getting the lottery in either ADV or non-ADV round  p3 = 0.393493997175
the prob of getting the lottery at least once for 4 attempts    p4 = 0.864686722203

Python代码如下
# http://immigrationgirl.com/h-1b-lottery-no-news-yet-but-some-statistics-for-you/
# Many have asked what percentage of filings may have been filed under the Advanced Degree exception. From the filings in our office:
# 64% of the petitions we filed were for the Advanced Degree (AD) exception, also known as the master's cap
# 36% of the petitions we filed were for the Regular Cap (Non-AD)

# total petition is 236000
# p1 : the prob of getting the lottery in the ADV round
p1 = 20000./ (236000 * .64)
print 'the prob of getting the lottery in the ADV round                p1 =', p1

# p2 : the prob of getting the lottery in the non-ADV round-baidu 1point3acres
p2 = 65000./ (236000 * .64 - 20000 + 236000 * .36)
print 'the prob of getting the lottery in the non-ADV round            p2 =', p2

# p3 : the prob of getting the lottery in either ADV or non-ADV round
p3 = p1 + (1-p1) * p2
print 'the prob of getting the lottery in either ADV or non-ADV round  p3 =', p3

# p4 : the prob of getting the lottery at least once for 4 attempts
p4 = 1-(1-p3) ** 4
print 'the prob of getting the lottery at least once for 4 attempts    p4 =', p4
回复

使用道具 举报

nunuh89 2016-4-19 07:25:46 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   100% (1)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   91% (696)
 
 
8% (65)    👎
这是她 自己律所里面的样本

不是说 一定就是这个概率 但是能有个参考意义
回复

使用道具 举报

good4better 2016-4-19 07:49:54 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   0% (0)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   72% (111)
 
 
27% (42)    👎
就是试图用sample来解释整体,未必对,但是很有参考意义
回复

使用道具 举报

yyz20002008 2016-4-19 07:58:21 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   0% (0)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   88% (23)
 
 
11% (3)    👎
然并卵........其实
回复

使用道具 举报

apricot 2016-4-19 08:00:05 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   0% (0)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   100% (4)
 
 
0% (0)    👎
如果真的只有50%。。。今年ad的申请人数比去年上涨了50%啊,太夸张了吧
回复

使用道具 举报

jeff_xu001 2016-4-19 08:50:56 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   0% (0)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   85% (1204)
 
 
14% (204)    👎
apricot 发表于 2016-4-19 08:00
如果真的只有50%。。。今年ad的申请人数比去年上涨了50%啊,太夸张了吧

sample size 不一定足够的,但起码还有一点希望吧
回复

使用道具 举报

jeff_xu001 2016-4-19 09:31:51 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   0% (0)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   85% (1204)
 
 
14% (204)    👎
jeff_xu001 发表于 2016-4-19 08:50
sample size 不一定足够的,但起码还有一点希望吧

IG 说得很明白:Premium processing, non PP 的还没出来
回复

使用道具 举报

lhyqie 2016-4-19 10:33:42 | 显示全部楼层
本楼: 👍   0% (0)
 
 
0% (0)   👎
全局: 👍   95% (62)
 
 
4% (3)    👎
oldbok 发表于 2016-4-19 10:06
这个取样已经错了,因为reg里面有很大一部分来源于ICC的人员搬运,所以adv人口远不到64%
根据去年IG的中 ...

如果不是64%, 你觉得大概是多少? 我要更新一下概率.
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册账号
隐私提醒:
  • ☑ 禁止发布广告,拉群,贴个人联系方式:找人请去🔗同学同事飞友,拉群请去🔗拉群结伴,广告请去🔗跳蚤市场,和 🔗租房广告|找室友
  • ☑ 论坛内容在发帖 30 分钟内可以编辑,过后则不能删帖。为防止被骚扰甚至人肉,不要公开留微信等联系方式,如有需求请以论坛私信方式发送。
  • ☑ 干货版块可免费使用 🔗超级匿名:面经(美国面经、中国面经、数科面经、PM面经),抖包袱(美国、中国)和录取汇报、定位选校版
  • ☑ 查阅全站 🔗各种匿名方法

本版积分规则

绿卡排期 >
EB-1 Current 前进0天
EB-2 2018-04-01 前进121天
EB-3 2019-01-08 前进7天
EB-4 Current 前进0天
EB-5(NR) 2015-11-15 前进7天
EB-5(R) U 前进0天
OPT处理时间 >
4天
Approved to Mailed
3天
Mailed to Delivered
24天
RFE to Approved
74天
Received to Approved
84天
Received to Delivered
104天
Received to RFE
124天
Received to Rejected
YSC OPT申请收据号 查询
>
快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表