求大家对人民币的看法- 汇率会从7.24 掉到7.1 吗

anon404 发表于 2024-5-6 08:02
直接看 forward rate就行 https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-cny-forward-rates

预期半年内降到 ...

你很好学，但是知识只掌握一半的话只会坑了自己啊。要不要考虑问一下GPT forward rate是什么？ :P


我的问题：Assuming USD CNY exchange rate is at 7.2 right now, and USD has an interest rate of 5.5% and CNY has an interest rate of 1.5%. Calculate the 1 year forward rate
GPT的回答：
Given:

Spot Rate (USD/CNY) = 7.2
Interest Rate for USD = 5.5% or 0.055
Interest Rate for CNY = 1.5% or 0.015

The 1-year forward exchange rate for USD/CNY, given the current conditions and interest rates, is approximately 6.927.

和你的结果好接近哦！

wudikuail 发表于 2024-5-6 22:02
你很好学，但是知识只掌握一半的话只会坑了自己啊。要不要考虑问一下GPT forward rate是什么？ :P

这只是理论值，但是你没有考虑到：

• 利率可以变
• 汇率并不只是由利息决定的
  

如果真的能套公式，那么价格走势图应该是一条平滑的曲线，而不是这样：

我也问 GTP：Does forward exchange rate always follow the interest rate parity theory?

回答：

The Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory suggests that the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the difference between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate of their currencies. However, in reality, the forward exchange rate doesn't always precisely follow the IRP theory due to various factors. Here are some reasons why:

    Risk Premiums: Forward exchange rates might incorporate risk premiums due to factors such as uncertainty, political instability, or economic risks. Investors demand higher returns for holding assets in a currency with higher risk, which can cause deviations from IRP.

    Transaction Costs: There are transaction costs associated with currency trading. These costs can influence the forward exchange rate, leading to deviations from IRP.

    Capital Controls: Governments may impose capital controls that restrict the free flow of capital across borders. Such controls can affect interest rate differentials and cause deviations from IRP.

    Liquidity Premium: If a currency pair has low liquidity, the forward exchange rate might not precisely follow the IRP theory due to liquidity premiums demanded by market participants.

    Market Expectations: Forward exchange rates can be influenced by market expectations about future economic conditions, which might not perfectly align with interest rate differentials.

    Speculation and Market Sentiment: Speculative activities and changes in market sentiment can cause fluctuations in forward exchange rates, leading to deviations from IRP.

    Central Bank Interventions: Central banks sometimes intervene in the foreign exchange market to influence the value of their currency. Such interventions can lead to deviations from IRP.

While the IRP theory provides a useful framework for understanding the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates, these factors can cause deviations from the theory in practice. Thus, while the forward exchange rate often moves in the direction implied by IRP, it doesn't always follow it exactly.

微信用户fs8h8 发表于 2024-05-06 08:28:55
短期不确定，长期不可能。你不知道现在的形势，现在是中国内需完全不够，前两年产能却一直在扩张，产品只能向全世界输出，欧美出于各种原因会大幅加税贸易税，中国唯一的应

现在中国对外投资很多，越南，泰国，墨西哥，日本，欧洲都是热点。这种情况下，人民币升一点值是有好处的。

微信用户fs8h8 发表于 2024-05-06 08:28:55
短期不确定，长期不可能。你不知道现在的形势，现在是中国内需完全不够，前两年产能却一直在扩张，产品只能向全世界输出，欧美出于各种原因会大幅加税贸易税，中国唯一的应

首先看欧美能扛多久，现在欧美的有产阶级享受无风险高利息爽死，中下层怎么办？

短期内(3-6个月)不会，但是明年大概率会跌下去甚至到回归6时代，特别是降息的话，目前没必要短期兑换大量美元。
以上仅个人观点

看看中美到底谁能坚持了，美联储加息就等着别人出现危机然后降息进行收割

一朵牡丹花 发表于 2024-05-06 15:16:41
卢麒元：“2024年底人民币兑美元会达到3：1”

这人是谁？这么敢预测

微信用户fs8h8 发表于 2024-5-6 23:28
短期不确定，长期不可能。你不知道现在的形势，现在是中国内需完全不够，前两年产能却一直在扩张，产品只能 ...

并不会加税多少就贬值多少，还有一部分会是直接涨价

你问我这个不如信我是秦始皇

感觉早晚涨回去