辩论和住院后，特朗普在全国民调中进一步落后于拜登

距离2020年美国总统大选还有四周了。在9月29日首次总统辩论以后，拜登在每一项全国性民调中都领先于特朗普。

- CNN周二公布的民调结果显示：在可能的选民中，拜登以16个百分点的优势领先于特朗普（57%比41%）。这项调查是在第一场辩论和特朗普感染后进行的，发现受访者在一些关键问题上更倾向于拜登；包括冠状病毒爆发（59%支持拜登，而特朗普为38%）、医疗保健（59%对39%）和种族不平等（62%对36%）。

- 雅虎新闻/YouGov周日公布的民调结果显示：在登记选民中，拜登以8个百分点的优势领先特朗普（48%对40%）。在9月29日辩论后，10月1日至2日进行的调查发现，拜登扩大了3个百分点的优势，特朗普在独立选民中失去了支持。辩论前，这些独立选民以微弱优势支持特朗普，而不是拜登（44%对43%）。辩论结束后，他们更倾向于拜登而不是特朗普（44%对29%）--这意味着总统一夜之间在独立选民中实际上失去了15个百分点。

- NBC新闻/《华尔街日报》周一公布的民调结果显示：在登记选民中，拜登以14个百分点的优势领先于特朗普（53%对39%）。这项调查辩论之后，特朗普周五住院之前进行的--发现大多数选民认为拜登的气质和性情比特朗普好（58%对26%）。民调还发现，老年人（62％至35％）和郊区妇女（58％至33％）以较大的优势支持拜登。在50岁及以上的男性中，辩论前特朗普的领先优势为13个百分点，而辩论后进行的同一民调显示，拜登在该民调中比特朗普保持了1个百分点的优势。

- Hill-HarrisX周五公布的民调结果显示：拜登在注册选民中以7个百分点的优势领先特朗普（47%对40%）。这项调查是在辩论结束后，特朗普宣布感染前进行的--看过辩论的人中，有56%的说拜登赢了，而44%的人认为特朗普赢了。

虽然拜登数月来在全国民调中一直领先特朗普，但大选很可能会落在少数几个州，包括威斯康星州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州、亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州和北卡罗来纳州。根据Real Clear Politics对这些州近期民调结果的平均数，拜登在这些州的每一个州都占有优势，不过幅度小于他在全国民调中的领先优势。

- 威斯康星州：拜登+5.6% 拜登+5.6%
- 密歇根州：拜登 +5.6% 拜登+5.8%
- 宾夕法尼亚州：拜登 +6.5%。
- 亚利桑那州：拜登 +3.4%。拜登 +3.4
- 佛罗里达州：拜登 +3.4%。拜登 +3.5%
- 北卡罗来纳州：拜登 +3.5%。拜登 +1.2%

With the 2020 election exactly four weeks away, former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Trump in every national poll, opening up a significant advantage in surveys taken since the first presidential debate.

- CNN poll results released Tuesday showed Biden with a 16-point lead over Trump (57 percent to 41 percent) among likely voters. The survey — which was conducted entirely after the first debate and mostly after the president’s coronavirus diagnosis was made public — found respondents favored Biden over Trump on a number of key issues, including the coronavirus outbreak (59 percent for Biden compared with 38 percent for Trump), health care (59 percent to 39 percent) and racial inequality (62 percent to 36 percent).

- Yahoo News/YouGov poll results released Sunday showed Biden with an 8-point lead over Trump (48 percent to 40 percent) among registered voters. The survey, conducted Oct. 1-2, after the Sept. 29 debate, found Biden expanding his edge by 3 points, with Trump losing support among independent voters. Before the debate, these independents narrowly preferred Trump over Biden (44 percent to 43 percent). After the debate, they preferred Biden over Trump (44 percent to 29 percent) — meaning the president effectively lost 15 points among independents overnight.

- NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll results released Monday showed Biden with a 14-point lead over Trump (53 percent to 39 percent) among registered voters. The survey — which was conducted after the debate last Tuesday but before Trump tested positive for COVID-19 and was hospitalized Friday — found that a majority of voters feel Biden has a better temperament than Trump (58 percent to 26 percent). It also found that seniors (62 percent to 35 percent) and suburban women (58 percent to 33 percent) back Biden by wide margins.In one of Trump’s historically strongest demographics, men 50 years and older, Biden held a 1-point edge over Trump in that poll — compared with a 13-point lead for Trump in the same poll conducted before the debate.

- Hill-HarrisX poll results released Friday showed Biden with a 7-point lead over Trump (47 percent to 40 percent) among registered voters. The survey — also conducted after the debate but before Trump announced he had tested positive for the coronavirus — found 56 percent of those who had watched the debate said Biden won, compared with 44 percent who felt Trump did.

While Biden has led Trump in national polls for months, the election will likely come down to a handful of battleground states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. According to Real Clear Politics, which averages the results of recent polling in those states, Biden holds an edge in each of those states, though by margins smaller than his national polling lead.

- Wisconsin: Biden +5.6%
- Michigan: Biden +5.8%
- Pennsylvania: Biden +6.5%
- Arizona: Biden +3.4%
- Florida: Biden +3.5%
- North Carolina: Biden +1.2%  source



指尖新闻：高信噪比，一目了然

新冠疫情追踪

groundzyy1 发表于 2020-10-9 05:42
小区前几天刚有个邻居发贴说门口的支持trump的牌子被偷第二次了，不得不再捐500表示抗议。。。

让他多捐250，够给懂王交明年的税了

推荐去538围观摇摆州选情，确实是拜登利好哪怕考虑到民调误差。另外，上次全国民调并没有不准，希拉里多赢了三百万张一样输，和民调预测的全国数量一致。还有上一次希拉里平均民调巅峰时期差不多是拜登的五个月平均数，而且几乎从未超过46。

补充内容 (2020-10-9 05:26):
上面说错了，拜登五个月平均将近49个百分点，希拉里从来没到过这个数。

川粉们bb有啥用，下注啊。川普胜选1赔2.6，实现财富自由的机会来了。 https://sports.bwin.com/en/sport ... ection-2020-5802562

想问一下有没有大家公认的unbiased的团体做polls呢？

感觉有政治倾向的媒体做的调查可参考度都不是很高。

如果polls可信，希拉里都当了4年了

tamu123 发表于 2020-10-9 03:41
想问一下有没有大家公认的unbiased的团体做polls呢？

感觉有政治倾向的媒体做的调查可参考度都不是很高 ...

我一般用这个:
https://www.realclearpolitics.co ... den-6247.html#polls

虽然并没有完全unbiased的媒体, 但是能够很多家一起看.

polls还是别信了，我的深蓝州，4年前铺天盖地的希拉里竞选标，最后还输了。今年特朗普的标却不比拜登的少了。

tamu123 发表于 2020-10-9 03:41
想问一下有没有大家公认的unbiased的团体做polls呢？

感觉有政治倾向的媒体做的调查可参考度都不是很高 ...

538啊，上次吃了亏，这次谨慎很多了

spinsurround 发表于 2020-10-08 12:48:56
如果polls可信，希拉里都当了4年了

应该说如果美国没有选举人制度希拉里都当了四年总统了。这个制度天然倾向人口数量比较少比较保守的州。

summer921011 发表于 2020-10-9 05:22
推荐去538围观摇摆州选情，确实是拜登利好哪怕考虑到民调误差。另外，上次全国民调并没有不准，希拉里多赢 ...

2016年538上关于每个州的预测全部都是错的，拜登粉就别拿popular vote这点事做遮羞布了，都讲了4年了能不能换点新鲜的

temperlancer 发表于 2020-10-9 04:15
我一般用这个:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_v ...

这家只是把各种民调汇总一下，也没啥信息量