数据说话 2021 绝对没有fsw

TQL0200 发表于 2022-1-10 15:16
Fraser和马可波罗一样 只是照章办事 照本宣科。他们自己是决定不了什么的。

之前特鲁多给Fraser发的mandate letter里只字未提fsw的安排，不过我记得是要求Fraser给一个本年度移民的计划方案吧？这个有了吗？我看楼主消息很灵通

TQL0200 发表于 2022-01-09 21:19:50
今天来聊一聊2022年 fsw backlog会不会finalize

根据这篇文章 https://www.cicnews.com/2022/01/canadas-immigration-bac

个人认为这么算的前提是22年会和21年一样 政府继续只focus 境内申请.
至于走向完全看小土豆的，移民部长只相当于执行人的角色. 2月份会发的22plan 大概率会把之前letter重复一遍.
22年fsw感觉外网抱怨申请过期不公的声音越来越多，应该不会像21年完全不抽.（当然抽一次也算抽，12月再抽也算抽了）不管是draw或者finalize的生机基本就是指望着加拿大群体免疫，疫情奇迹般得到控制.

tinawang92 发表于 2022-1-10 09:21
个人认为这么算的前提是22年会和21年一样 政府继续只focus 境内申请.
至于走向完全看小土豆的，移民部长只 ...

外网抱怨申请过期不公的声音越来越多

光是candidate抱怨根本没用呀。又不是pr或者公民抱怨。

太木杰太 发表于 2022-1-10 00:25
之前特鲁多给Fraser发的mandate letter里只字未提fsw的安排，不过我记得是要求Fraser给一个本年度移民的 ...

mandate里确实没有提。
新的level plan看2/10出来我会给大家update。

太木杰太 发表于 2022-01-10 00:25:20
之前特鲁多给Fraser发的mandate letter里只字未提fsw的安排，不过我记得是要求Fraser给一个本年度移民的计划方案吧？这个有了吗？我看楼主消息很灵通

咋可能提，JT根本不care fsw。这么多年mandate letter从来都没有提过fsw，只有fsw自己们才会care fsw。

走省提名呗

Till Jan 2022:
38K cec in pool;
150K FSW in pool;
5K people above 500CRS.

终于kubeir有点干货:

interview with steven meurrens:
Steven 是一个移民律师 经常给ircc发atip request, 在tweeter上把内部doc发出来。(Most ATIP requests are useless as most perspective ideas / suggestions are redacted.)

TL DR: 不确定为什么timestamp不工作。t = 861
(1) IRCC can reach 2022 targets with just the applications in queue, although unlikely to not to have any intakes at all.
https://youtu.be/w7oMOSDJapc?t=861

(2) It's still possible to terminate all pending applications. 个人观点是steven算是利益相关，毕竟需要别人找他file mandamus。t = 1199
https://youtu.be/w7oMOSDJapc?t=1199

(3) TRV不按照顺序处理是因为ircc有it issue t = 1491
https://youtu.be/w7oMOSDJapc?t=1491

(4) selling mandamus t = 1638
https://youtu.be/w7oMOSDJapc?t=1638

(5) FSW, what do you think should happen, and what do you think will happen? t = 2765
Steven: There shouldn't be a skilled worker draw except people with arranged employments until every single CEC applicant in the pool has been invited to apply.

Will happen? Will there be a draw this year?
Steven: There may be very small draw. ... There might be a small draw... However there is a change in NOC getting rid of 0, A, B, which requires a change in the legislation that FSW is based on ... Will they use that to change greatly FSW program? Possibly. I think they will revise express entry to allow them to do occupation specific draws. ... I don't think there will be regular skilled worker draws this year...  (个人观点是occupation specific draw短期来看基本是一个不可能任务)

https://youtu.be/w7oMOSDJapc?t=2765

From the latest IRCC Memo leak:

TL DR:
- FSWs will take 36 months to finalize
- No CEC draws till June 2022
- TPR does take EE quota and EE admission target
- Draws afterwards probably will require CRS 500+
- Hinted that CRS Ranking system might be changed such that new comers are more diverse instead of homogenous high language skill, high academic level candidates. (Perhaps this is where the NOC based selection theory comes from?)

TQL0200 发表于 2022-01-18 19:29:52
From the latest IRCC Memo leak:

TL DR:

1. 36个月说的是“as older inventory is processed”，很多19年的case到今年是第三个年头，可不就是36个月了。不是说incoming new cases will take 36 months。这也是这个memo的意义：建议 extend no draws来降低case processing time

2.准确讲是no FHS till June 2022. cec only draw =speculation