老印高人在1月份对排期的详尽分析和预测

原帖开始于1月底，主要以印度为核心分析，但分析部分对中国试用。

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/2158776537/nuts-and-bolts-part-2-2-fy2021-what-an-year-eb2-3-i-date-move-by-eoy-2021-with-121k-so/page/1


1) Why FY2021 is an EPIC Year in Employment Based(EB) cateogy category in past 25 years.

2) How far EB2/3-I move by EOY2021 with 121,000 SpillOver(SO) - Did my best on EB2-I but EB3-I have many variables(awaiting trends later on)
As I write today 1/24/2021 - Employment Based(EB) Visa/GC category, FY2021 sofar is the best year in the History of Employment Based(EB) immigration in past 25 years due to 2 extraordinary events.
POINT_1) FY2021 Total Employment Based(EB) allocation is at a ever record 261,500 Green Cards instead of normal 140,000. Never had we got so much SpillOver(GC) from FB. So EB1/2/3 each get almost 74,789 Visas/GC instead of 40,004 GC. A comparable thing happened in history of 30 years dates back to FY2005 where total EB allocation was overall 250,000.

Just becoz of there is an epic SpillOver(SO) of 121,500 Green Card in FY2021, dont expect Final Action Dates(FAD) to move drastic for India. Hold your EB2/3-India expectations for FAD movements, USCIS have to follow laws as they can only issue per what boundaries of law and number of Green Cards available. India being the MOST Significant Oversubscribed country in EB2/3, First 3 Quarters(Oc/Dec,Jan/Mar,Apr/Jun) there will limited movement in Final Action Dates(FAD) and that is restrained due to fact of 7% cap in law.

please understand SpillOver(SO) Green Cards is NOT allocated to most back logged country.

in short, Benefits to EB2/3-India can happen in last Quarters, with one caveat ONLY IF THERE IS UNUSED VISAS(LEFTOVERS) IN REST OF WORLD(ROW) IN EACH CATEGORY.

By law allocation of Family Based(FB) SpillOver(SO) GC gets added to entire Employment Based(EB) and proportionately divided across each category with 28.6 Percentage of total to EB1/2/3 and 7.1 for EB4/5. Further then the spilt of ROW/I/C/P/M/V depending on each Category.

Most of allocations will be towards Rest of World(ROW) in each category and Oversubscribed country get limited to 7 PCT.

Later on if there is unused/leftover in ROW , will be then distributed in last Quarter[July to September 2021] to oversubscribed countries. Say EB2, at the end of Quarter what ever EB2-ROW unused GC will go to both India and China and India will gets lions share as being the most retrogressed country. The signs of SpillOver(SO) to Oversubscribed countries if any, will be seen from May/June 2021 onwards. EB1/4/5 are different, as Rest of World(ROW) demand has been predominantly quite low, historically there has always excess ROW Visas allocated to India as horizontal spillover in EB1/4/5 categories, that is reason EB1/4/5 will be soon current or already current.

红字的预测正在发生：由于国家quota的存在，会等到最后几个月确定用不完才一股脑给印度，捎带中国。 具体多少印度，多少中国，只有奥本知道。
所以我们才会看到最近几个月的狂飙突进。


对EB的好消息：由于疫情在印度等国家的继续肆虐，主要国家的FB还是没法正常进行，大量的FB FY2021名额会转给EB FY2022。 所以奥本说2022 FY应该也会快速前进。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HCuNrPCHQM&t=1039s
16:28 - any chance in spillover for FY2021 to FY2022?  奥本说FY 2022至少会有29万EB!
这个EB数量很可能空前绝后。

此老印刚刚在昨天公布的排期中排到，他已经在美国工作15年。

捎带问一句，你们常说的奥本是谁

也就早交个485，对于拿绿卡USCIS不干活有毛用。今年都要浪费掉10多万绿卡他有没有预测？

tongkemiao 发表于 2021-06-17 17:26:24
捎带问一句，你们常说的奥本是谁

辽宁本溪产的奥利奥

再空前绝后也架不住移民局磨洋工，都快7月份了，去年10月大军的绿卡还没有全面开花。移民局的政策是多收钱不发卡

我有一个问题,为什么移民局不收485加急费?

dongfangzhe9 发表于 2021-06-17 15:08:26
我有一个问题,为什么移民局不收485加急费?

人家不差钱！ 人家追求的就是喝喝茶，看看报，实在无聊了就处理一两个case，刷刷存在感