美股爱好者 新人拜见 分享一下我看见的研报 欢迎加米

小结一下我目前看到的一些研报
高盛不看明年衰退，认为美股可以避免衰退
彭博 认为明年9-11月会衰退
目前技术面 SPX 还是偏向于下跌后的反弹，目前也快来到下跌趋势线的阻力位置了。均线还是呈现空头排列。大趋势还是向下的。中趋势是上涨的。
希望关注，后面会定期更新，求加米！

读这些研报没啥用，胜率在95%以上的头部trader都是读tape。

这楼是GS 宏观经济的2023 展望， 作者 We, Hui Shan, Maggie Wei, Lisheng Wang, Xinquan Chen, Yuting Yang and Andrew Tilton，标题是after winter Spring comes， 作者还是比较看好明年宏观经济。 报告很长，我帮你们画画重点
By expenditure categories, Chinese exports are poised to slow on weakening external demand, while growth drivers rotate from investment to consumption on reopening. Within consumption, sectors that have been most constrained by Covid such as travel and entertainment have the most room to recover. Within investment, we expect infrastructure investment to decelerate significantly, followed by manufacturing investment next year. Property investment should continue to contract, although the drag from the property sector to the broader economy may become smaller next year.

China’s reopening is likely to be a major driver of asset prices in 2023. We expect higher equity prices, modestly higher rates, higher commodity demand (especially energy), and a stronger RMB vs USD next year.

Taken together, we estimate that Chinese potential growth has fallen to around 4%, which underpins our 2025-2027 forecasts once Covid distortions disappear.

Consumption will likely be the bright spot of economic growth in 2023 should China reopen as we expect.

We expect savings rate to gradually fall towards trend level in the next few years, from the elevated level in 2022

many lower-tier cities are unlikely to see a full recovery in this easing cycle due to structural factors,

We maintain our view that the ongoing property downturn will likely be a multi-year growth drag for China,

小白有啾咪 发表于 2022-11-27 22:06
我比较喜欢sell call spread做空。。

期权的话，我可以补充几句，sell call spread，对于那种要跌也跌不动，肯定涨不起来，大家都在观望的时候比较好。如果是下啥动能最强的时候，做一个risk reversal，卖出一个at the money的call，买入一个at the money 的put。利用gamma 的加速肯定是最猛的组合。
期权的组合还是要看市场行情的波动，和现在的regime，iv，还有很多其他二阶期权定价的倒数。
安全空间，成功率，盈亏比都是要考虑的。。。。太多东西了

国内 方正证券对2023年宏观经济的展望 总结
海外经济增速放缓，进一步拖累中国出口动能
FED加息放缓，国内流动性适当宽松
2023 疫情防控更加精准，促进消息政策，消费回暖趋势，房地产有望回升
猪肉 价格周期难以达到上一轮涨幅，cpi 整体（官方）压力不大
国内货币政策维持稳定宽松
流动性方面：无风险利率下行空间有限
A股估值处于历史低位，过去几年成交量显著放大

BoA US equity strategy review:
看好板块：energy，consumer staples，utilities
高盛看好的板块：health care，comsumer staple，energy，telecom， consumer durables
高盛 中立板块：software service，financials， utility， real estate
高盛 看跌板块： technology hardware， industrials， media & entertainment，semiconductors， materials， automobile
来源： Goldman sach investment research

投资要洞察人心！明年这样行情，现在大家都很慌，防御性板块可能已经price in 很多了。人心对未来的的路的反应，直接体现在价格 和 成交量上

f2jing 发表于 2022-11-25 21:30
国内 方正证券对2023年宏观经济的展望 总结
海外经济增速放缓，进一步拖累中国出口动能
FED加息放缓，国 ...

房地产有望回升

国内国外感觉都要靠政府和大量房托刺激流动性

f2jing 发表于 2022-11-26 01:03
BoA US equity strategy review:
看好板块：energy，consumer staples，utilities
高盛看好的板块：healt ...

狗盛反着买就好了

可以做空了最近，sell call spread

小白有啾咪 发表于 2022-11-26 16:27
可以做空了最近，sell call spread

确实是到阻力了。

f2jing 发表于 2022-11-26 14:45
确实是到阻力了。

你打算怎么做空，交流一下