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本帖最后由 iq28 于 2009-10-10 23:17 编辑
very good post. i agree with you on many points. see my comments regarding photovoltaics below.
我感觉这一块暂时不是太热门,而且实话说,在未来的一段时间也很难成为热门
简单说说:
世界能源在技术方面两个主要的领军地域,一个是美国,一个是欧洲,而欧洲中最主要的又是英法德三国
来看看这三个国家:
as for state-of-art photovoltaic research, #1 is germany/australia, #2 is japan/switzerland/netherlands. usa is far behind germany and australia but is now picking up quickly, with more than $100M research funding annually, from doe, nrel, industry and army etc. for pv market, #1 is germany, spain/usa are two most close runner-ups, though the combine of their installation cannot be matched with germany. module market value of germany in 2008 is around $2B, let alone the other parts of the industry chain.
france and britain are off the table of pv.-baidu 1point3acres
法国不用说了,核能占这个国家的超过四分之三的比例,而且有继续增大的趋势,新能源显然不会是重点
英国一直在加大天然气的进口,新能源比例也比较低,不到5%,虽然未来会有新能源的投资,但是在天然气很充足的情况下,不会花太多力气.就算在新能源上花费,风能也是首选,光伏电池占的比例很有限. Χ
德国就更不用说了,俄罗斯的天然气直接供应到门口,每年的供应量只见增多不见减少,核能的比例也不小
excatly. wind energy is doing damn good in industry, followed by solar thermal. photovoltaic systems are oftentimes combined with wind systems, i.e hybrid power plants/farms. we never hope we can kick gas out someday, and 5% is still an unfulfillable goal for pv in at least 5 years. but meanwhile do NOT look down on 5% share in energy market, you can find it's a TREMENDOUS figure (~$250B) if you do some research, and keep in mind annual income of semiconductor industry is ~$200B. also, be aware of the difference of the feed-in-tariff for pv and wind in germany, china and usa..google и
而更重要的是,现在的石油供应仍然非常好,比之前预测的储量要多的多,几十年之内还是会非常充足的,所以新能源在未来几十年之内仍然只能占到非常非常小的份额,风能是首选,光伏方面就很难有什么大规模的公司了.
come on dude, no pv giants? check out the spin-offs/solar arms of intel, amat, sanyo, sharp and oerlikon, etc. for brandnew startups, see how many bucks q-cell, first solar, nanosolar and suntech, etc. have touted these years. . .и
you are absolutely right on gas supply. but for the price of gas, it's NOT necessarily inverse-propotional to detected gas reserve. if this is the case then the price of silicon wafer/ingot in semiconductor/solar industry will NEVER be a problem. but see what has happened to wafer price around 2006? also, see where are those newly found gas fields? mostly in very harsh environment which means higher cost. you need to drill much deeper, or simply go off-shore--farther from shore than previous off-shore fields. we are NOT waiting for the last drop of gas, we are waiting for the day fossil fuel prices over pv electricity.
another reason why i'm looking good for pv is the attitude of government. of course, gas is always the favorite son. but now pv can also share the spoil. why? 1st pv is cleaner, i.e. reduce carbon emission. i know many people think this is a joke, no one really cares about it. but the 2nd reason is it can creat jobs. aka green jobs. that's one of the real reasons i think why now governments are paying serious attention on renewable energy. check out the portion of renewable energy related funds in arra and you can get some ideas. . 1point 3acres
所以这方面做的人恐怕怎么都不能跟ECE比。。。感觉没啥前途。。。呵呵
exactly. now finally i know why you dont't think renewable energy a big deal. if the benchmark is ece, INDISPUTABLY pv's nothing now. for ece guys just want a good job after graduation, of course, the infant pv is no way your choice. only for hardware ece, you guys now have very hot nano scale si/sige mosfet, si/sige memory, III-V hbt/mosfet/hemt on silicon (intel is begging on this technology for next generation transistor). no ece guy needs to give a shit to the fluctuating young pv, which is now consuming more wafers than traditional semiconductor industry but at the same time may be fucked up at any time, possibly tomorrow morning. pv is just new on track, still has to experience more cycles of bulb breaks, whole bunches of shake outs of losers before it can elove in a mature business with $~100 billion per year, hopefully before my graduation. we still have a long, long way to go, until we can become a real industry.
but as for ChE, Physics, Chem and MSE guys, sometimes pv is scarce choice, if one doesn't have specific interest in other research.
个人观点,仅供参考
very good post, thanks. apologize for my bad english
Dincyfeng 发表于 2009-10-10 07:09 ![]() |
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