利率新低，是否买房好机会（顺便求大米看面经谢谢）

裁员才是入市好机会。。。

没有啥关系

如果接下来裁员潮并没有如预计的那么影响大呢？

可以买房的， 利率最近很好，需要的找我咨询贷款。 ：）

kangdi 发表于 2020-3-23 03:16
美联储降息跟买房利率有关系吗？

美联储降息跟买房利率没有多大的联系。

One of the key sources of confusion here is that mortgage rates definitely DO care about what the Fed does.  This is especially true in cases where the Fed changes its policies on buying the bonds that directly affect mortgage rates.  It's even true when the Fed changes its stance on the Fed Funds Rates (the thing that they cut by 50 bps just now), but that's where the correlation gets tricky.  
There are 3 key ways to understand the paradox.

1. The Fed Rate is a Battleship in a River

The Fed meets to MAYBE change its rate only 8 times a year, barring emergencies (like today).  Mortgage-backed bonds and Treasuries, on the other hand, can change thousands of times a day.  Mortgage lenders update rate sheets at least once every business day.  In short, mortgage rates and the bond market are FAR MORE NIMBLE than the Fed and, to whatever extent they are going to take guidance from a Fed rate decision, they ALWAYS move WELL in advance because Fed rate changes are very well-telegraphed these days (even today's emergency cut).  Bottom line, mortgages react to the Fed rate cut BEFORE it ever happens, but even then, a Fed cut might not convince mortgage rates to move lower due to the other 2 factors.

2. The Fed Rate is a Different Animal Compared to Mortgage Rates

The Fed Funds Rate applies to loans with a term of up to 1 day (essentially last minute money shuffling between banks in order to ensure everyone has the money they need for the day if the previous day happened to create an imbalance).  Mortgages, of course, can be loans of up to 30 years.  Quite simply, investor preferences can vary greatly depending on the duration of a loan.  If you've heard about the inverted yield curve, that's a quintessential example of shifting investor preferences between longer and shorter term debt.  It doesn't get any shorter than the Fed Funds Rate nor much longer than mortgage rates.  Consequently, they move in opposite directions all the time.

3. Fed Policy is About Much More Than The Rate Itself

The Fed Funds Rate is only one of the aspects of the Fed's monitor policy communication.  Markets care about it, but again, they usually know what it's going to be ahead of time.  Even then, markets typically care much more about how the rate will move in the future. To that end, they're very focused on the economic realities that are likely to shape future Fed moves.  Markets also care quite a lot about any changes in the Fed's bond buying plans, and we didn't see that today.

If you take nothing else away from the above, take this: the bond market (which includes mortgages rates) has been able to react to coronavirus implications for weeks, and there's been no Fed meeting during that time.  It took an emergency, unscheduled rate change for the Fed to even bring itself into line with market expectations.  They're a battleship in a river, and that river has been swift.  

利率新低是每刀贷款的每月供款下降。问题是，你和你潜在对手（其他买家）现在都有工作，只会令售价上升（你的供款一样，但卖家收到的多了）
买房的好机会，是市场上的准买家大幅减少了，卖家要钱时没选择才会跌价
（如果是自住用，那市场供应上升也是好机会。但是这在湾区是没什么机会的）

chaeyoung 发表于 2020/03/23 04:13:18
如果接下来裁员潮并没有如预计的那么影响大呢？

那应该会跟独角兽上市失利后湾区跌回涨价前位置，然后回复缓慢上升

美联储降息跟买房利率没有多大的联系！而且房价的影响因素有很多！

moonpig 发表于 2020-3-23 12:31
美联储降息跟买房利率没有多大的联系！而且房价的影响因素有很多！

空欢喜，喜欢的房子今天早上秒没了……

现在估计没人抢了，因为都不出门了