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十分感谢！这是我认知之外的信息。
刚去搜了一下TSM最近几个季度的财报，关于对CoWoS的回复，这里我quote一下。字比较多但是请看一下，都是CEO C.C. Wei 原话。
23Q1:
- let me say that, actually, just recently in these 2 days, I received a customer's phone call requesting a big increase on the back-end capacity, especially in the CoWoS. We are still evaluating that.
这里还是不确定要不要增加CoWoS。
23Q2:
- But for the back end, the advanced packaging side, especially for the CoWoS, we do have some very tight capacity to -- very hard to fulfill 100% of what customers needed. So we are working with customers for the short term to help them to fulfill the demand, but we are increasing our capacity as quickly as possible. And we expect these tightness somewhat be released in next year, probably towards the end of next year. But in between, we're still working closely with our customers to support their growth.
- I will not give you the exact number, but let me give you a roughly probably 2x of the capacity will be added. [CoWoS capacity will be doubled in 2024 vs. 2023]
这里已经确定开始增加CoWoS，同时 “very hard to fulfill 100% of what customers needed”这句话我听的感觉是，他们不能完全满足CoWoS order，但是差的不多。同时“we're still working closely with our customers to support their growth.”我觉得有可能是指后面会外包OSAT去做CoWoS，可能算了一下产能升级来不及。
23Q3:
- Well, Sunny, the last time we said that we will double our CoWoS capacity, we are working very hard to increase the capacity more than doubled, but today is limited by my supplier's capability or their capacity. So we still maintain that we will double our CoWoS capacity by the end of 2024. But the total output actually is more than doubled from 2023 to 2024 because of a very high demand in -- from our customer. So actually then this kind of a trend will continue to increase our CoWoS capacity to support our customers even into 2025.
确定more than double CoWoS。
23q4:
- The demand actually is very strong. Today's situation, that we cannot offer enough capacity to support our customers, and that condition will continue probably all the way to next year, although we are very -- working very hard to increase the capacity. For example, this year, we are doubling our output, still not enough. And so we continue to increase for the next year.
相对于之前说不能100% fullfill，这里用了actually very strong.. 综合TSM的excel表，可以认为他们这里已经在全力给NVDA加产量了。
24Q1:
- Charlie, let me say it again, the demand is very, very strong, and we have done our best where we put all the effort to increase the capacity. It's probably more than double this year as compared with last year. However, it's still not enough to meet the customers' demand, and we leverage our OSAT partners to complement of TSMC's capacity to fulfill our customers' need.
这里提到了OSAT，也说了订单很难满足。如果把 23Q4和24Q1的HPC放一起（下表），可以猜23Q4中期就开始引入OSAT了。这也合理，毕竟芯片的东西，外包的话，总得有个磨合的过程。（没有quote原文）这里他还说了不会因为某些客户的 GPU margin高，就减少其他低margin客户的产量。我认为这说的就是 NVDA 和 AMD.。
24Q2: So from last year to this year, we have more than doubled. And as I said, from this year to next year, we want to double again or, probably, we want to more than double again. But still, I have to work with our OSAT partner to increase the overall supply to support my customer.
这里的口吻可以基本确定CoWoS产量上升，可能已经double，加上OSAT，就可以解释为什么HPC涨了那么多。
如果照这个逻辑看的话，是可以解释24Q1 backlog 变短的。但是还有一个问题，23Q4 HPC 和 NA 都涨，24Q1 HPC微涨但是NA下跌，24Q2 HPC大涨，但是NA微涨，同时CHINA大涨。按照我个人对TSM的了解，他们不会坐地起价价高者得。所以这增长的部分有多少去了NVDA，也难确定，毕竟同时还有AMD和中国（华为？）。尤其是Q2，我想不出来中国的部分除了HPC还能是什么。
总的来说，您这个input算是反击了我之前对NVDA backlog的分析，综合贴子里提到的 NVDA 的各个指标其实并不高，我现在更确认当下NVDA不是一个好的做空对象。不过我的put也不会卖，留着看看财报有什么变化吧。对于SMCI，我还是稳得住，毕竟NVDA当前是垄断，但是SMCI有竞争对手，而且NVDA有压制合作方margin的历史。
再次感谢。 |
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