奥本最近对排期的预测

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

EB-1:

For November, the EB-1 Final Action Dates advanced according to this prediction with EB-1 Worldwide(including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) advancing approximately 5 weeks from April 22, 2018 to June 1, 2018; EB-1 China advancing a full three months from November 1, 2016 to February 1, 2017; and EB-1 India holding at January 1, 2015.

Charlie noted that for November, EB-1 China advanced the anticipated three full months due to lower than expected demand, but cautioned that the rate of advancement could slow down.

Do not expect EB-1 India to advance for some time since there is already significant number use and pending demand in that category. Charlie noted that he has already given out 17% of the targeted EB-1 India numbers set aside for Q1 of the fiscal year.

Since EB-1 China and EB-1 India will be subject to their per country limits in the foreseeable future, the only possibility of more rapid movement in these categories is if demand for visas in EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) were to fall below that allowed under the overall annual limit.

The latest report Charlie received from USCIS shows significantly lower demand in EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) compared to the last few years. He notes that the potential demand reported for EB-2 Worldwide and EB-3 Worldwide combined dwarfs the reported demand for EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam).

If this low demand trend continues, EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) could potentially return to current at some point this fiscal year. Do not expect to see this happen prior to April at the earliest, and be cautioned that a significant increase in demand in this category could prevent this possibility. If EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) does return to current again, EB-1 India, and possibly China, would benefit from the “otherwise unused numbers” which would allow the Final Action Date to advance at a faster pace for those two countries.

In the past, Charlie was able to wait until closer to the end of the fiscal year to redistribute the otherwise unused worldwide numbers in the EB-3 and EB-1 categories, allowing the India and China categories to advance. More recently, the high demand in EB-3 and EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam), prevented these categories for China and India from advancing as they had in the past. This has resulted in significant amounts of pending demand awaiting forward movement of the Final Action Dates, particularly for India. Charlie reports that there are 17,000 pre-adjudicated EB-1 India requests pending at USCIS or overseas posts. No forward movement is expected in EB-1 India through January. However, when the date does begin to move, there is a potential for EB-1 India to leap forward by up to 6-8 months because of low concentration of demand in the weekly groupings.

EB1-ROW的需求已开始大幅度下降(因EB2及EB3都current), 如果需求持续低迷, 有望在本FY回到current(但最早也要等到20年4月). 如果是这样的话, 中国和印度就可以吃到SO, PD可以更快速前进.

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EB-2:

EB-2 Worldwide (including EB-2 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-2 Mexico, EB-2 Philippines, and EB-2 Vietnam) remains current for November and is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.

In November, EB-2 India advances only one day from May 12, 2009 to May 13, 2009, which is consistent with last month’s prediction that it would advance at a pace of “(u)p to one week.” Charlie is starting to see an increase in upgrades from EB-3 India to EB-2 India, with the numbers requested so far in October most likely being attributable to upgrade requests.

EB-2 China advances two months in November from January 1, 2015 to March 1, 2015. Given that the Final Action Date for EB-3 China (November 1, 2015) is eight months ahead of EB-2 China, it is likely to prompt downgrades which could take the pressure off of EB-2 China demand, causing that category to advance.

EB-3:

The EB-3 category bears watching as we continue to move into Q2 of the fiscal year and beyond, and especially EB-3 Other Workers. Charlie is very surprised at the high level of numbers used in this category this fiscal year as well as pending demand for this category, noting that it is significantly higher than it has been in the past to the tune of thousands. Nevertheless, Charlie still expects EB-3 Worldwide (including EB-3 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, and EB-3 Vietnam) to remain current through at least January.

EB-3 China is receiving a high level of downgrade requests, with 300 requests in October alone, causing its Final Action Date to hold at November 1, 2015 for November. As noted above, if this trend continues it will limit the advancement of EB-3 China while potentially increasing the rate of advancement for EB-2 China.

EB-3 Philippines had pent up demand but the lower incoming demand trend allowed the date to advance 3.5 months to February 1, 2018 for November.

中国EB3的FAD比EB2快8个月, 光是十月已受到过300宗EB2 downgrade to EB3, 因此EB3在11月原地踏步. 如果downgrade热潮持续, EB3的前进将很慢. 反之, EB2因需求递减倒有可能快速前进.

总言之, EB1形势还是较看好, EB2和EB3最后大概打平手吧.

明明白白的表达了很多信息：
- 现在的EB2是真排期，而不是像有些人所说的那样，为了防止HR1044搞的假排期，彻底粉碎了阴谋论和某些人的幻想
- 升降级已经充分考虑到，并且受到密切关注。超发的可能新也会越来越低，不会像前几年一样，一不小心多发了几千个

这倒是印证了两点：
1. 对老中来说，必须保持EB1速度快于EB2，否则就会像ROW一样大量从EB1降级到EB2，ROW的EB2是current有名额可以承压，中国的EB2不能承压。
2. 说明现在的EB2/3排期是真排期，之前前进到2017年只是收485表造成的假象。

canmist 发表于 2019-10-26 06:32
差不多就这个意思。

或说的难听点， 就是 "你想搞EB23升降级随你便，但你要知道我也不是傻子，哪条队 ...

这次B表EB3比EB2快那么多，相信降级的会更多。。。正如两三年前的EB2降级大潮，导致EB3两年排期没怎么动，期间EB2刷刷的快。最后一些人肯定又升级回到EB2，然后EB2又慢了。。。但是升降级这个东西只要两个排期存在差异，律师建议你搞，你肯定就搞了，管她三七二十一呢。。。谁不想赶紧交表拿卡啊，也是能理解的。。本人刚刚FILE EB3的PERM，随缘吧，并不打算跳来跳去，相信最终的结果是一样的。

也就是明年EB-1还有希望 Current？

inuyasha19 发表于 2019-10-25 12:12
也就是明年EB-1还有希望 Current？

EB1 明年row有希望current的 中国肯定不可能

inuyasha19 发表于 2019-10-25 12:12
也就是明年EB-1还有希望 Current？

基本不可能的，2020财年末EB1排期大概能推进到2017年底前后，排期前进不是线性的

印度人的EB1 PD比中国早2年，中国能吃到SO吗？
EB2 需求少，印度EB2 又能前进一大步，而中国还是限制在2800。

inuyasha19 发表于 2019-10-24 20:12
也就是明年EB-1还有希望 Current？

EB1 ROW最早明年4月后有望current. 中国要current恐怕还是遥遥无期, 毕竟烙印EB1积压实在太多 (17000份 pending). 能让老中排期恢复到(并维持在)2年左右就很不错了.

所以他想表达的意思是是，你EB23升降级，final action date也没什么变化，因为你走多哪路，哪路排期就加长，而且排期还有滞后性。？