中国的玉米市场热潮可能会帮助美国农民们

中国的玉米价格正在飙升，这对美国农民来说可能是个好消息。随着中国之前囤积的玉米库存缩减，玉米价格已经攀升至五年来的高点。自1月以来，大连商品交易所的前月玉米期货已上涨27%，至每公吨约2306元(329美元)。

在2016年，中国政府结束了一项针对玉米农户的长期价格保障计划，这导致了玉米数量的大量囤积，价格下跌。低价和持续的供应过剩导致农民们减产。中国原本将玉米主要用于动物饲料，但过去4年里国内玉米价格持续低迷，使得生产商们找到了玉米的其他用途，比如烹饪淀粉。不过，要想大幅减少库存，让价格回升，还是需要多年的时间。但随着现在价格的飙升，行业分析师表示，他们预计中国将加大玉米和其他谷物的进口量，如高粱和大麦，以帮助满足需求。这将使今年饱受价格下跌之苦的美国谷农受益。冠状病毒大流行抑制了销售，而由于美国农户增加了种植量，今年9月的玉米收成很可能进一步打压市场。

中国今年已经加大了对美国农产品的采购力度，希望达到1月份签署的中美贸易协定第一阶段规定的采购目标。根据美国农业部的数据，截至7月16日，中国购买了210万吨玉米，高于去年同期的31.5万吨。7月10日，中国农业农村部表示，预计在截至今年9月的12个月内将进口600万吨玉米。这比其早前的预测高出50%，将是有史以来的最高总量。

Corn prices in China are soaring, which could be good news for American farmers. As China’s formerly bloated stockpiles shrink, prices have climbed to a five-year high. Since January, front-month corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen 27% to about 2,306 yuan ($329) a metric ton, a level last seen in the summer of 2015.

Back in 2016, the Chinese government ended a long-running price-guarantee program for corn farmers that had led to the accumulation of massive amounts of the grain. Withdrawing the supports caused Chinese corn prices to plunge. Low prices and the lingering oversupply led farmers to cut back production. China uses corn primarily for animal feed, but low domestic prices over the past four years caused it to find other uses as well, such as for cooking starch. Still, it has taken years to significantly reduce stockpiles and allow prices to recover. But with prices now soaring, industry analysts say they expect China to step up imports of corn and other grains, such as sorghum and barley, to help meet demand. That would benefit U.S. grain farmers, suffering from falling prices this year. The coronavirus pandemic has damped sales, and the market is further depressed by expectations of a larger corn crop later this year, thanks to farmers’ increasing the amount they planted. The U.S. harvest typically begins in September.

China has already stepped up purchases of American farm goods this year, looking to hit purchasing targets laid out in the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal signed in January. China bought 2.1 million metric tons of corn through July 16, up from 315 thousand metric tons in the same period last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The world’s most populous nation and No. 2 economy is also the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the U.S. On July 10, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said it expected to import six million metric tons of corn in the 12 months ending this September. That was 50% higher than its earlier forecasts and would represent the highest total ever.  source

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