特朗普VS拜登： 2020美国总统大选直播讨论帖

NYT Updated 5m ago
AZ 86% REPORTED

Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Democrat
1,469,341        50.5%

Donald J. Trump*
Republican
1,400,951        48.1

我想睡觉。接下来的一波要等到8AM EST了。

verandah007 发表于 2020-11-5 15:46
不是跟着county走的 ballot的构成跟你想的不一样
现在就是74-77 vs 22的比率 跟mail ballot returned的 ...

嗯嗯，我是按比较保守的算的。e.g. Vegas所在的Clark County Biden+8, 我就用这个County剩余的uncounted选票152,713*Margin 0.08, 得到Delta 赢12,174。也就是说没考虑mail-in偏Dem的Buff加成。你说的更拟合一些，但也容易放松警惕哈哈

KamalaHarris 发表于 2020-11-5 15:49
NYT Updated 5m ago
AZ 86% REPORTED

拜登领先少了一万票
谢谢，我看好像新一轮票开出来并没有影响很多

为什么AZ蓝郡Maricopa County票开出来，差距还缩小了啊？AZ还稳吗？

AZ好慌，稳住啊啊啊啊啊

不用太紧张吧 PA可以翻 拜登不知道输什么。。。

PA 什么情况，这么慢

walfrKEVT 发表于 2020-11-5 16:04
不用太紧张吧 PA可以翻 拜登不知道输什么。。。

但是还没翻，而且还差10万多票，差距还是不小的

水够200页，睡觉睡觉

momozhaoo 发表于 2020-11-5 16:00
为什么AZ蓝郡Maricopa County票开出来，差距还缩小了啊？AZ还稳吗？

因为maricopa即使有凤凰城+urban的加持也并不是一个纯蓝郡。
Maricopa County has a long history of being a Republican Party stronghold. While the city of Phoenix leans towards the Democratic Party, along with some other small areas within the county, the rest of it tends to vote heavily Republican, making it one of the more conservative urban counties in the country. Every Republican presidential candidate has carried Maricopa County since 1948. This includes the 1964 presidential run of native son Barry Goldwater, who would not have carried his own state had it not been for a 21,000-vote margin in Maricopa County. It is currently the largest county in the country to vote Republican. Since 1964, Democrats have only kept the margin within single digits three times–in 1992, 1996, and 2016.