【原创计算贴】米国打伊拉克图的是石油么？

可以看broken window fallacy

唉唉唉。。。。。
这个计算的一个假设是，美国打仗之前可以正确预计战争成本。
历史说：预测战争的结果和成本是很难的
历史数据说：绝大部分战争，都历时比预计的长，耗费比预计的多

我的gut feeling是，美国本 ...
小K 发表于 2010-5-13 22:26

嗯。你说的有道理。但是我觉得当时油价那么便宜，伊拉克的油也不是主力，而且那会觉得不缺油（现在很多人也说，未探明储量其实很乐观……）。所以为了油打这个仗很划不来的啊……打仗多费钱的，用别的方法搞油肯定更便宜更方便

阅读能力不错，没有摘要你也看懂我的point了
zach 发表于 2010-5-13 22:33

你那点point好像很高深似的……

可以看broken window fallacy
小K 发表于 2010-5-13 23:19

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_window_fallacy
太有用了，受教受教

quote 偶像

"The whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be  
reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely  
at the immediate but the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing  
the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups."
"Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other science known to man."
-- Henry Hazlitt in Economics in One Lesson

你那点point好像很高深似的……
caymanson 发表于 2010-5-13 23:22

好吧。那我感谢你，行了吧

excerpts from ECONOMICS IN ONE LESSON  by Henry Hazlitt
Chapter II, "The Broken Window"
_________
-
   A young hoodlum, say, heaves a brick through the window of a baker’s shop.  The shopkeeper runs out furious, but the boy is gone.  A crowd gathers, and begins to stare with quiet satisfaction at the gaping hole in the window and the shattered glass over the bread and pies.  After a while the crowd feels the need for philosophic reflection.  And several of its members are almost certain to remind each other or the baker that, after all, the misfortune has its bright side.  It will make business for some glazier.  As they begin to think of this they elaborate upon it.  How much does a new plate glass window cost?  Two hundred and fifty dollars?  That will be quite a sun.  After all, if windows were never broken, what would happen to the glass business?  Then, of course, the thing is endless.  The glazier will have $250 more to spend with other merchants, and these in turn will have $250 more to spend with still other merchants, and so ad infinitum.  The smashed window will go on providing money and employment in ever-widening circles.  The logical conclusion from all this would be, if the crowd drew it, that the little hoodlum who threw the brick, far from being a public menace, was a public benefactor.
   Now let us take another look.   The crowd is at least right in its first conclusion.  This little act of vandalism will in the first instance mean more business for some glazier.  The glazier will be no more unhappy to learn of the incident than an undertaker to learn of a death.  But the shopkeeper will be out $250 that he was planning to spend for a new suit.  Because he has had to replace the window, he will have to go without the suit (or some equivalent need or luxury).  Instead of having a window and $250 he now has merely a window.  Or, as he was planning to buy the suit that very afternoon, instead of having both a window and a suit he must be content with the window and no suit.  If we think of him as part of the community, the community has lost a new suit that might otherwise have come into being, and is just that much poorer.

   The glazier’s gain of business, in short, is merely the tailor’s loss of business.  No new “employment” has been added.  The people in the crowd were thinking only of two parties to the transaction, the baker and the glazier.  They had forgotten the potential third party involved, the tailor.  They forgot him precisely because he will not now enter the scene.  They will see the new window in the next day or two.  They will never see the extra suit, precisely because it will never be made.  They see only what is immediately visible to the eye.*

还有这一堆的书

http://www.freedomkeys.com/bkecon.htm

袁老师也被和谐了，唉，太和谐了

。。。。。

zach 这话你也信？ us军队为了解放伊拉克人民才去的？

除掉经济成本，这个政治成本算了吗？ 打完这场战争，对于us的地位巩固，对于各个反对势力的震慑，这些也要算进去。

天下熙熙 皆为利来 天 ...
zhangboupc 发表于 2010-5-13 19:44

exactly