特朗普VS拜登： 2020美国总统大选直播讨论帖

GA要到晚上了

PA和GA怎样现在

因为宾州在统计的是mail in ballot，所以我觉得按照地区看（比如费城剩余票数x费城的领先比例）不太合理。应该看现宾州mail in中支持拜登的比例。
如果没记错的话，宾州的early vote（含mail in ballot）支持拜登的比例在80%以上。
所以应该计算的是宾州目前 剩余票数x（80%-20%）是否大于目前拜登落后懂王的票数。
不过也可以保守地算 剩余票数x（70%-30%）是否大于拜登落后懂王的票数。

Source: NYT, 7mins ago

Pennsylvania: So far, Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic candidate, has been winning absentee votes, 77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left. The secretary of state reported a total of 2.6 million absentee ballots cast as of Tuesday, and so far 2.1 million absentee votes have been counted. If Mr. Biden won those 500,000 ballots by the same pace, he would end with a lead of about 100,000 votes in the state. That’s a pretty decent cushion. That estimate may also be conservative. The remaining mail ballots are disproportionately in Democratic counties, and there are more remaining absentee votes than estimated here.

Arizona: Joe Biden’s lead in Arizona fell to 2.4 points Wednesday night, as late mail ballots broke toward Mr. Trump by a significant margin. This runs counter to the pattern we’ve seen elsewhere in the country, but it was expected, or at least not a surprise. Over all, Mr. Trump won the ballots counted in Arizona on Wednesday night by about 23 points. It’s hard to say whether that pace will be enough for Mr. Trump to win, since it depends on exactly how many ballots are left, what kinds of late mail ballots are left, and what kinds of votes were counted Wednesday night.

No matter how you cut the data, it’s hard not to arrive at the conclusion that Mr. Biden’s lead will withstand the late vote. But there’s also enough uncertainty with the number and kind of ballots left that it would be a mistake to be too sure about it. Certainly, it is too soon to project the state for Mr. Biden.

Georgia: The president’s lead in the state all but vanished overnight as heavily Democratic ballots in the Atlanta area were finally counted. There are still more absentee ballots left for Mr. Biden. It’s not clear exactly how many ballots there are and where; there was conflicting information this morning, and things are so close that even modest differences will be decisive. We also don’t have a number on the provisional ballot count, but we’re in the territory where that’s a potentially crucial factor.

Nevada: Mr. Biden still holds a lead, and the remaining vote comes from mail ballots received on Election Day and provisionals. There’s reason to expect these will pad Mr. Biden’s lead: Democrats were outpacing Republicans by a two-to-one margin in the state’s mail ballot returns, and provisionals lean Democratic just about everywhere. But we should get more data today.

North Carolina: We’re still waiting on how many mail ballots arrived after the election, and whether they’re enough to overcome the president’s lead. There’s not much reason to expect it, but here again we’ll wait to be sure.

Flash321 发表于 2020-11-5 23:54
NYT更新了呀，现在费城80%+了，总的也91%

那就有点.....危险了
之前我记得450K:114K的时候是70%左右(?)
现在总数才加了30K就到了81%.....说明开始的%数据不大对啊
费城的领先比预估的少很多

凯特猫是透明君 发表于 2020-11-6 00:02
因为宾州在统计的是mail in ballot，所以我觉得按照地区看不太合理（比如费城剩余票数x费城的领先比例）。 ...

这个我知道的 但这个7：2的比率是个均值 就是说费城要hold一定的rate才可以保持 红镇一般没有7:2 但均值是这样 我就担心突然少了这么多票 还是重仓》。。

littlegreenbird 发表于 2020-11-6 00:04
Source: NYT, 7mins ago

Pennsylvania: So far, Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic candidate, has b ...

This is almost have been read by yesterday night. I still hope it keeps considering the time is 7mins ago.

littlegreenbird 发表于 2020-11-5 11:04
Source: NYT, 7mins ago

Pennsylvania: So far, Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic candidate, has b ...

The remaining mail ballots are disproportionately in Democratic counties, and there are more remaining absentee votes than estimated here.

又是一天的等待。。。我都等枯了

PA是不是会追不上阿……