牛人破解彩票了

http://flowingdata.com/2011/02/07/statistician-cracks-the-scratch-lottery-code/

[size=1em]Statisticians everywhere are squealing in delight over this story on fellow statistician Mohan Srivastava,
who used his know-how to crack the code of a tic-tac-toe scatcher lottery game. After winning three dollars on a scratcher ticket that was given to him as a gag gift, Srivastava got to wondering about the process of how tickets were made. As a geological consultant who figures out if areas are worth mining for gold, he wondered if he could do the same with this scatcher.

[size=1em]Srivastava realized that the same logic could be applied to the lottery. The apparent randomness of the scratch ticket was just a facade, a mathematical lie. And this meant that the lottery system might actually be solvable, just like those mining samples. “At the time, I had no intention of cracking the tickets,” he says. He was just curious about the algorithm that produced the numbers. Walking back from the gas station with the chips and coffee he’d bought with his winnings, he turned the problem over in his mind. By the time he reached the office, he was confident that he knew how the software might work, how it could precisely control the number of winners while still appearing random. “It wasn’t that hard,” Srivastava says. “I do the same kind of math all day long.”

[size=1em]It turns out he was able to pick out winners 90 percent of the time. He eventually told the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation about the flaw, simply because he did the math and he makes more as a consultant than he would scratching hundreds of tickets every day. The game is no longer in stores now, of course, but on whether other games can be cracked:

[size=1em]Fundamentally, he believes that creating impregnable tickets is extremely difficult, if not impossible. “There is nothing random about the lottery,” he says. “In reality, everything about the game has been carefully designed to control payouts and entice the consumer.” Of course, these elaborate design elements mean that the ticket can be undesigned, that the algorithm can be reverse-engineered. The veneer of chance can be peeled away.

[size=1em]I sense ticket sales spiking across the country.
[size=1em]The funny thing is that most statisticians I know don't gamble at all because they know the odds are not in their favor. On the other hand, for Srivastava, it was statistics that drew him in.

真的假的...如果公开了破解的话那彩票也该改算法了...

求解释。知道了算法也不知道买到的彩票刮出来是不是有奖啊%……
如果是摇号的那种，能预测摇出来的号？

这人也忒牛啦~

貌似只是破解了某种特殊类型的彩票？要是连35选7这种也破解了的话。。。。

谁看懂了technical details来科普下吧，
我承认我标题党了，具体细节没有去看那。。。。。

...///

想到一句话
包括MonteCarlo,基本的随机数发生器即计算机生成符合均匀分布Uniformdist的随机数，其本身也只是假随机数发生器。其只是可以通过现存的uniform dist测试而已。

谁看懂了technical details来科普下吧，
我承认我标题党了，具体细节没有去看那。。。。。
小K 发表于 2011-2-8 10:19

我也没去看。但是从原理上讲，就算知道了整个的model，就算不是真随机是假随机，也还是不可能预测结果啊
尤其他说的scratch（刮奖的那种？），那可真的神马办法也没有……