核废水时间的一些资料收集

首先说说我的观点，从现有的证据来看，排出的核废水是安全且符合国际标准的。不过也需要长期的监测。

那么我们关注的问题应该是，最后排出的核废水里面，是否还留存有大量对人体，环境有危害的放射性物质，以至于不符合国际的安全标准。
这个核废水，或是核污水，其实它的名字并不重要，有影响的只是里面的放射性成分。

那么，看一看支持方与反对放的证据。

.1point3acres支持方的主要证据之一就是国际原子能机构的报告，https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-presents-monitoring-data-from-japan-on-treated-water-release-from-fukushima-daiichi

这里写得很清楚：

The Agency issued its comprehensive report on the safety review of the ALPS-treated water at the FDNPS on 4 July. In the report, the IAEA concluded that Japan’s approach and activities to discharge ALPS-treated water are consistent with relevant international safety standards. The report noted that the controlled, gradual discharges of the treated water to the sea, as currently planned and assessed by TEPCO, would have a negligible radiological impact on people and the environment.

这个报告一百多页，国际原子能机构最后得出的结论就是，废水对人和环境的放射性影响微乎其微。

那么反对方的观点是，排出的污水里放射性物质含量是不安全的，其实也就是说否定国际原子能机构的结论。

要否定这个结论，其实最直接的证据应该是，日本现在排到大海里的污水里面放射性元素超标，高于国际安全标准，那么肯定也高于国际原子能机构的要求，但是，类似这样的直接证据，至少到现在我并没有看到。

这样的直接证据应该不难获得，由第三方在排污水的出海口取样，送到实验室检测即可，也未看到媒体报告说日本禁止在海边取样与检测。与之相反，排放废水后，IAEA一直在检测取样，但尚未发现问题：https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-presents-monitoring-data-from-japan-on-treated-water-release-from-fukushima-daiichi

再评论下论坛里几个高赞观点：
1. Science 在2021年有过一篇针对日本福岛核污水排放计划的报道，里面提到了：
除了氚之外，具有更长放射性寿命的更危险的同位素，如钌、钴、锶和钚，有时也会逃过ALPS（减污净水系统）的处理，这是东京电力公司（TEPCO）直到2018年才承认的。

如上所述，这个不是直接的证据，这个无法直接证明现在排出的水中还有这些超过标准的更危险同位素。几个想法：
a. 在2018年之后，是否ALPS有所改进，过滤效率更高？
b. 中间流程中逃过ALPS的同位素是会直接排放进大海，还是会重新过滤被去除的？在这篇Science原文中，下方就有提到过

The government official says the Fukushima water will be "repurified" to meet regulatory standards for these nuclides. Buesseler notes that those limits were put in place for operational nuclear power plants, not for the deliberate release of contaminated water from a nuclear disaster. "Would this open the door for any country to release radioactive waste to the ocean that is not part of normal operations?" he asks.

同时，IAEA在其报告里也有提到：

Establishing discharge limits for other radionuclides
The NRA explained that it does not intend to set discharge limits for other radionuclides because tritium is
the only radionuclide that cannot be removed by ALPS treatment to meet existing regulatory concentration
limits for the discharge of radioactive effluents into the environment (regulatory concentration limits are
established in the “Notification Establishing Dose Limits, etc. Based on the Provisions of the Regulations,
etc. Concerning the Refining Business of Nuclear Source Material or Nuclear Fuel Material”). All other
radionuclides are subject to operational conditions based on these regulatory concentration limits along
with a requirement that the sum of ratios (i.e., the sum of each radionuclide concentration in the discharge
divided by the regulatory concentration limits) needs to be less than one. Contaminated water is treated
by ALPS until these regulatory concentration limits are met. The discharge limit for tritium in Bq per year
and the regulatory concentration limits for other radionuclides in Bq per litre work together to control the
quantity of other radionuclides discharged.

这段话的意思应该是，除了氚之外，其他所有放射性物质的总量被要求不超过一个限额，废水将不断地被ALPS处理，直到总量低于这个限额，也就是说废水会被重复过滤。
这个过程在后面的图表中也有提及。
2. 日本在国际原子能机构具有巨大的影响力，IAEA 从 2009 到 2019 年的总干事天野之弥就是日本人，连任三届。任期覆盖了福岛核事故的全程。要不是他不幸在任期内去世，现在总干事多半还是他。
这个就更不属于证据了。没找到有媒体报告说IAEA总干事指示手下修改数据或隐瞒相关情况。

最后贴几个Reddit上的高评论帖子，供大家参考：
.
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/co ... uclear_plant_water/
https://www.reddit.com/r/AdviceA ... _radioactive_water/
https://www.reddit.com/r/environ ... ter_from_fukushima/
https://www.reddit.com/r/news/co ... ive_water_from_the/