每个层次都报了些的话，全部rej可能性有多大？

呃。。这个得问春哥

看RP。。

感觉保底的学校一般不会被rej吧，至少我本科申请的经验，没听说有人全部rej～

4# edwardgtxy
万一我觉得他是保底，可是人家就是看不上我怎么办呢.....

申一堆总会砸中一个~

If the events that each school aceepts you are mutually independent, then Pr(being rejected by all schools applied) = (1 - p1)(1 - p2) ... (1 - p_n), where n is the total number of schools applied and p_i denotes the probability of being accepted by the i th school.
However, these events are more likely to be positively correlated, i.e., given you get accepted into school A, you are more likely to be accepted by school B than without that information.

偶承认偶很无聊 ：P

7# duanmupeiyi

有道理，都不是相对独立的，比如你能被哈佛录取，那几乎能被后面的大多数学校录取了

They are identically distributed, but not exactly independently.
跟6楼一起无聊..

9# young628



I don't think p_i's are identically distributed. Clearly Harvard and some tier 2 school have different application pool and admission standards.
Since probability can be interpreted as a measure of belief, we can assign probabilities to each application and update our guesses by collecting data, such as results from previous years. Is this Bayesian inference?

在读Dr. Erich Lehmann 回忆录的时候，他提到由于是在美国学习的统计，他不晓得如何用德语（他的母语）来讲解统计。我发现我也有同样的问题 - -b