特朗普民调大跌，但现在算他出局还为时过早

因为美国疫情导致的经济衰退，2000万人失业；以及对警察暴力执法抗议的愈演愈烈，加上特朗普上周末在俄克拉荷马州举行的竞选集会上观众率寥寥无几的情况。几乎最近所有的民意调查都显示特朗普将在11月竞选失败。RealClearPolitics对大选民调发现，拜登的领先优势已经扩大到9.5个百分点。FiveThirtyEight的类似民调显示，拜登领先9.2个百分点，并在每个战场州都领先特朗普。6月10日，盖洛普民调显示，特朗普的支持率已经暴跌10个百分点，至39%。但这是不是就意味着特朗普要输了呢？这就引出了专家推断的可能对特朗普会有帮助的第二种情况：经济的撕裂式复苏。据劳工统计局报告称，5月份非农就业人数猛增250万，同时由于许多州放松了封锁，购物者重返商店和餐馆，零售额增长了18%，创下历史新高。市场研究公司Bianco的创始人兼总裁Jim Bianco说，“眼前这些对特朗普来说可能是个好消息，因为经济似乎正在反弹。"

With the nation reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic, a recession that’s thrown 20 million people out of work, and waves of protests against police violence, nearly every recent poll shows President Donald Trump headed to defeat in November. And Trump’s sparsely attended rally in Oklahoma last weekend did little to indicate those polls are missing a hidden groundswell of support. The RealClearPolitics average of general election polls finds Joe Biden with a commanding lead that’s grown to 9.5 points. A similar polling average from FiveThirtyEight puts Biden ahead by 9.2 points and leading Trump in every battleground state. On June 10, Gallup found that Trump’s approval rating had plummeted 10 points, to 39%. Does this mean Trump is toast? That leads to the second scenario that experts said could fuel a Trump comeback: a rip-roaring economic recovery. Recent days have seen some unexpected green shoots: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment jumped by 2.5 million in May, while retail sales rose a record 18% as many states eased lockdowns and shoppers returned to stores and restaurants. More positive numbers could be on the way. “If you believe Trump is down in the polls because of unhappiness about the economy, then there’s probably good news for him on the immediate horizon because it seems to be rebounding,” said Jim Bianco, founder and president of Bianco Research.   source

指尖新闻：高信噪比，一目了然

新冠疫情追踪

wht 发表于 2020-6-25 22:40
问题是当年和希拉里比更是劣势，当初是盯着投票直播中trump胜率直线上升，希拉里胜率直线下降。所以不到 ...

但当年希拉里和现在拜登情况不一样, 希拉里在general poll中其实优势没有想象中的那么大, 我翻了一下以前的图表, 其实是很接近的的, 甚至后期有段时间互有胜负. 这次首先川普是在位置上选连任的, 他的政治手段和效果相信大家也都看到了, 其次拜登到目前为止在民调上都是一路领先, 暂时不存在很接近的时候, 最最低的时候也领先了trump大概5个点... 当然我同意你的最后一句, 不到最后的election谁也不好说.
数据来源:
https://www.realclearpolitics.co ... s_clinton-5491.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.co ... _vs_biden-6247.html

支持川普的声音明显被低估了

川普的选举优势其实很微弱。我觉得共和党现在基本也放弃他了。之所以帮他说话完全是为了保住参议院。

pandami 发表于 2020-6-25 12:31
川普的选举优势其实很微弱。我觉得共和党现在基本也放弃他了。之所以帮他说话完全是为了保住参议院。

问题是当年和希拉里比更是劣势，当初是盯着投票直播中trump胜率直线上升，希拉里胜率直线下降。所以不到最后时刻，特朗普都不一定输

不希望看到懂王连任，但是目前来看真不好说。。。

都是要大选前才知道的

别着急下结论，这老头子坏得很～：）