经济学家警告：未来80年，气候变暖将使全球GDP下降20%以上

根据牛津经济（Oxford Economics）本周发布的一项新报告，到2100年，不断上升的气温可能会使全球GDP削减20%以上，气候变化有可能成为全球经济不平等的巨大驱动力。这份报告指出，位于经济活动的“全球甜蜜点”——15摄氏度左右两侧的国家，气温升高所引起的经济变化将不同：年平均气温低于15摄氏度的国家，比如北美和欧洲，短期内会因气温上升而略有受益；而平均气温已经高于15摄氏度的热带和亚热带国家，将面临灾难性的经济衰退。牛津经济研究院还特别指出，印度的经济发展轨迹显得特别糟糕，如果不改善目前的政策，到2100年GDP将下降90%。

Hotter temperatures by 2100 could slash global GDP by more than 20%, according to new research, and the way the economic impact will be distributed threatens to turn climate change into an enormous driver of worldwide inequality. A new analysis of the relationship between heat and economic performance released this week by Oxford Economics, a global forecasting firm, identified a divide between nations on either side of 15° Celsius (59° Fahrenheit), the “global sweet spot” for economic activity. A country whose average annual temperatures today are cooler than 15° C, including those in North America and Europe, stand to benefit slightly in the short term from rising temperatures. Tropical and subtropical countries whose average temperatures are already warmer than 15° C today, including the entire global South, face catastrophic economic degradation. India is singled out by Oxford Economics as following a particularly ruinous trajectory, with GDP falling 90% by 2100 if countries don’t improve current policies.  source

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