WSJ最新文章-似乎认为裁员依然不能解决META根本问题

Zuckerberg Didn’t Move Fast, Still Broke Things

Meta Platforms’ blowout hiring was only part of Facebook parent’s problems, as investors still aren’t buying into Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse plans

This would have been so much easier in the metaverse.


The company once known as Facebook announced broad layoffs Wednesday morning, in a letter to employees from Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg. The action will cut the size of Meta Platforms META 5.99%increase; green up pointing triangle‘ workforce by 13%—about 11,000 employees. That sounds big because it is. Facebook has never done a major retrenchment in its 18-year history, since the bulk of that history has involved double-digit growth and sky-high operating margins. They enabled the company to draw workers by the thousands every year, even in an industry marked by generous salaries and lavish perks.   
. .и
But 11,000 workers is also about 4,000 fewer than the number that Meta has hired just since the start of this year, when some problems already were apparent. One is that the company’s core advertising business was slipping, hurt by a combination of factors including a slowing economy, competition from TikTok and changes by Apple that Facebook refers to as “signal loss”—meaning less ability to track the activity of users for the purpose of selling them targeted ads. In early February, Meta reported that ad revenue grew only 20% year over year during the fourth quarter—10 points below what it had averaged over the previous eight periods—and its first ever decline in daily active users. The news cost the company more than one-quarter of its market value the following day.

Meta’s stock jumped nearly 8% Wednesday morning on the layoff news, but investors cheering the belated attention to cost control should still be wary. Its business ultimately still relies on users of its Facebook and Instagram apps checking in every day, and that future is far from certain as new time drains like TikTok take hold. Facebook in particular also still faces substantial questions about privacy, security and political disinformation on the platform.

说白了，整个花街的定价假设是有问题的：没有公司可以永远保持远超过经济增长水平的增长速度。fb过去这些年令人夸张的增长速度导致花街对他们的预期太过离谱，文章里提meta居然YoY只增长了20%，看着很让人觉得好笑：20亿日活的公司咋一年给你增长50%啊，奇迹之所以是奇迹就是因为不那么容易复制也不可持续。

我并不怎么看好元宇宙，我也认为小扎的方向是有问题的，meta也在大环境的alpha下有自己额外的negative beta：all in 元宇宙不是个好主意。wsj文章提到的问题也都是问题。但我认为这些问题的impact究竟有多大，是否会让meta这个超级现金牛变成一个不值钱的公司，至少我个人不这么认为：这个公司的广告业务依旧在增长，tiktok的竞争强大，但并不代表其已经取代了meta的地位，即便meta丢掉部分市场，他依旧是一个非常不错的广告去处。metaverse确实花费巨大，但这有很大一部分也来自于公司过去多年的高增长导致其并不重视成本控制。但公司会回归理性，也有能力调整，华尔街也会回归理性。

我个人认为，华尔街会发现如果连meta这样的超级现金牛只因为tt的部分冲击就不敢投资，很快他们会在市场上找不到投资标的。顺便一提，很多bet on earnings的公司对earnings report出来之后应该如何pricing这件事本来就不是一个非常量化的过程，eps miss1%应该跌20%还是15%还是5%很多时候深受市场情绪本身的影响。meta在一个紧缩周期里所有的这些“严重的”问题都被无限的放大，但这不应该是常态。

利益相关：我只持有几股玩玩看的meta股票，总价值小于1k，自己在金融行业且不做equity，以上的只代表我个人的看法。

华尔街这也。。。。欺人太甚了。
故意dump了meta的股票逼迫小扎做出tech历史上少有的大裁员，立刻就说裁员没用。。。
为啥不直接说meta关门就好了呢

裁员说白了只是饮鸩止渴。meta本来的问题一样都没少，原业务衰退，元宇宙纸上谈兵。
公众信任全无。
meta最是大厂里面最依赖h1b的，结果绿卡被卡的死死的。
这公司早晚完蛋。
现在也是就拖一拖。

beanbaby 发表于 2022-11-9 10:48
华尔街这也。。。。欺人太甚了。
故意dump了meta的股票逼迫小扎做出tech历史上少有的大裁员，立刻就说裁员 ...

欢迎来到资本主义？

小扎到底得罪哪位大佬了，这个追杀的局面看着也不光是business的问题，感觉是不是他后台倒了？

godducklist 发表于 2022-11-9 10:50
欢迎来到资本主义？

这和xx主义有啥关系，很多闭门造车骗投资的startup也没见花街如此围堵打压的啊

我个人觉得主要原因就是钱，我怀疑很多基金经理购入大量的高价（200-350）的META股票，至今深深underwater，他们企图用这种cut cost ，快速提高效率的方式逼宫，好让自己的资金回笼。这本质上一个螺旋漩涡。我在附件里上传了PDF版原文，但是我自己却不能打开，是因为权限不够吗？

华尔街只手遮天啊

真的人如草芥

匿名用户 发表于 2022-11-09 10:59:16
裁员本来就不会解决一个公司根本的问题吧。。。一个公司的发展当然要依靠R&D和新产品嘛，目前meta裁员肯定也只是暂时舒缓一下目前的财政状况。

我认为最主要的还是要裁掉那些小红书擅长 打卡/探店/

别的不说 你的第一二段是不是逻辑刚好反了？
建议先裁 逻辑不好的