Sig online assessment

I got 5 questions, all 4 of them seems easy to solve,
but the one I missed was:

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time you don't know you were tossing a fair coin or not).

looks like 0.6 to me.

i agree with 17/18
https://math.stackexchange.com/q ... time-heads-turns-up

Could you also share the other 4 questions? Thank you!

4/5 * (1/2)^5 = 1/40 fair
1/5 = 1/5 heads coin

1/40 / (1/40 + 1/5) = 1/9 chance of fair coin

1/9 * 1/2 = 1/18 chance of tail

1 - 1/18 = 17/18 change of head

匿名用户 发表于 2023-5-21 12:36
looks like 0.6 to me.

Agree. law of total probability. same answer

Thank you so much for sharing the info! Could you share the rest of the four questions? Really appreciate the help!

ac1415 发表于 2023-8-1 23:33
i agree with 17/18
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/56180/what-is-the-probability-that-you- ...

ah, 5 consecutive heads does provide extra information.
interesting.

ac1415 发表于 2023-8-2 13:33
i agree with 17/18
https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/56180/what-is-the-probability-that-you- ...

I agree with 0.9444 (17/18)

情况1：抽到双头硬币 几率1/5
情况2：抽到普通硬币 连续5次出现head情况4/5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=0.025

下次出现head的概率：0.2/0.225+0.025/0.225*0.5

这题和绿皮书的unfair coin 类似，可以参考一下