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[H1B] Fiscal Year 2019 USCIS最新情况update

    [复制链接] |只看干货 |工作身份, h1b
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本帖最后由 ianhezy 于 2018-6-22 15:38 编辑





今天看到了一个超级不要脸的机构叫DreamBigCareer,在公众号里大肆抄袭本文和大家的回复……还用此来给自己的课程打广告。醉了





5/15:
USCIS has completed data entry for all fiscal year 2019 H-1B cap-subject petitions selected in our computer-generated random selection process. USCIS will now begin returning all H-1B cap-subject petitions that were not selected. Due to the high volume of filings, USCIS cannot provide a definite time frame for returning unselected petitions. USCIS asks petitioners not to inquire about the status of their cap-subject petitions until they receive a receipt notice or an unselected petition is returned. USCIS will issue an announcement once all the unselected petitions have been returned.
Additionally, USCIS may transfer some Form I-129 H-1B cap subject petitions between the Vermont Service Center and the California Service Center to balance the distribution of cap cases. If your case is transferred, you will receive notification in the mail. After receiving the notification, please send all future correspondence to the center processing your petition.



5/14: 楼主今天毕业。。。太阳底下两眼昏花,一开始打错了。。。把514打成了512.。。
updated numbers as of now are as below:
EAC = 48,784
WAC = 47,352
Total = 96,136

- Updated at 11:00 AM EST



5/11:两边都没有消息……






5/10 截止今晚八点:
EAC = 47,256
WAC = 46,245. 1point3acres
Total = 93,501

*大家不要惊慌,如果data entry完成了,USCIS会发公告的。没有发就是还没录完*

IG:

5/10/18 UPDATE: Receipts came in for all types of cases.

  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 60% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 66% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 15% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 3% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)






5/9
截止今晚八点:
EAC = 46,138
WAC = 45,254
Total = 91,393
5/9一天只更新了1300个cases.

IG还没有任何更新..

截止今早九点:
EAC = 45,786
WAC = 44,253
Total = 90,039
5/8增加了3000个cases,远少于之前每天的6000个。data entry应该这周就会结束了?


-----------------------------------------------------

5/8 今早9点:


EAC = 44,234
WAC = 42,841
Total = 87,075

- Updated at 9:00 AM EST

IG律所:

5/7/18 UPDATE: Receipts came in from both Vermont and California today for AD and from Vermont only for non-AD.  We also received our first Requests for Evidence so it looks like USCIS has begun the adjudication process for those selected.

  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 60% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 62% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 12% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)



5/4
. 1point3acres
(1) Slack里的Receipts个数:-baidu 1point3acres

EAC = 39,728
WAC = 37,925
Total = 77,653



(2) IG律所的数据:
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 53% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 51% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 4% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 1point3acres
5/3的更新:

(1) Slack里的Receipts个数:. 1point3acres
EAC = 35,896
WAC = 36,123
Total = 72,019

比昨天增加了~6000个cases


(2) 根据地里小伙伴@tangzhou0227 的消息,FY 2019 H1B已经有approve的了。

(3) IG律所的数据:

5/3/18 UPDATE: Receipts came in from both Vermont and California today for only AD.

  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 52% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 50% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


5/2的更新:

Slack里的Receipts个数:
EAC = 32,785
WAC = 33,289
Total = 66,074
比昨日增加了~6000个cases,虽然不知道今年具体会抽多少个,但是可以预计的是,如果在8W5之后的某一天,突然每日增速降低到一日几百个cases,那基本上就代表着结束了。之后+3-5天 SEVP, SEVIS, CHECK还没有任何消息,基本凉。。


-baidu 1point3acres
有两个回复想首页置顶一下:
@elinaelein 的回复,IG今年80%AD 20%RD。
@yyayy 的推算,IG今年1388 AD and 347 RD。
所以可能IG的RD手气都不太好?手动再见了。。

IG律所的数据:
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 48% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 46% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)


然后手头上还有好多个H1B抽签群,里面也有些统计,但是样本都太小了,就不放出来了。。。




-------------------------------------------------------
5/1的更新:
Slack里的Receipts更新:
EAC = 29,944
WAC = 30,544
Total = 60,488

另外,IG根据他们律所寄出申请的总数和目前收到纸质receipts的对比:
. check 1point3acres for more.
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 42% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 45% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices  in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)

结果相当Very interesting,IG律所没有收到任何Regular receipt。 让我们暂时忘记 IG律所体量是个谜的情况下,45/42%已经很 接近于 在抽8W5的情况下Advanced degree抽中的理论概率了。


However, 地里确实有帖子表明(1)自己是Regular申请 and (2)律所已经收到了Receipt。目前Regular最早的Receipt是4/18。


暂时的结果有以下几个:
首先楼主要承认个错误,好像slack里的不是USCIS的员工,因为他以前名字好像叫USCIS INSIDER....误...那位大哥写了个爬虫爬USCIS的case website

然后楼主和@placeholder看了那位三哥的爬虫之后,发现了一个BUG:他统计方法来源于计算I129的receipts个数。但是 H1B Transfer file的也是I129,在只统计I129的情况下,似乎会把Transfer的数字也统计下去。


If 我们相信Slack里的阿三大哥通过某种手段把Transfer的I129给去掉了:
(1) 我们可以知道IG律所Regular cap的命都不太好,甚至抽Regular的人命都不太好.... 或者
(2) 我们推断:今年中签的提醒顺序可能被修改了:从原来的先AD CAP再RG CAP混发,变为了:先大量AD DEGREE再大量RG DEGREE?....
ELSE:
我们可以推测H1B Receipts目前发出去的应该少于6W个 并且 多抽了N多H1B petitions,才导致的目前的情况。那么每日多抽了多少了?4/12号 USCIS一共处理了1230个I129,那么按照worst case来算,1230个全是transfer,没有一个是new H1B的话,最少的Receipts数应该是60488-1230*16 = 40808. 楼主跑了4/11 WAC3000个cases,其中有41个是H1B Transfer,还剩下7000个IP 被block了....瞎几把算一下41/3000*10000 = 137. 姑且算60488 - 137*2*16 = 56104
. check 1point3acres for more.
由于楼主相信科学,特意去查了IG FY2018和FY2017的数据,
FY2018 Timeline:
(1) 4/18/2018:IG开始更新Receipt情况
(2) 4/21/2018:IG收到了第一个Regular Cap Receipt,当时AD 13%, 16%; RD 1%, 0%.
(3) 4/27/2018:IG达到了FY 2019的Advanced Cap中签率,当时AD 47%, 36%; RD 13%, 11%.


FY2017 Timeline:
比较窒息的是FY 2017是有PP的,所以会在抽中的时候有邮件提醒,该timeline有点崩溃:
(1) 4/13/2018:IG开始收到Email,当日白天AD 48%, 32%; RD 0%, 0%. 晚上AD 48%, 32%; RD 15%, 9%. From 1point 3acres bbs
(2) 之后几日:流水账式balbalblabla

我觉得,真相只有一个!
那就是:楼主真的很努力。抽中了还不忘大家。. 1point3acres



4/30:
EAC = 25,331
WAC = 26,698
Total = 52,029


4/27 Updated: 楼主今天抽到了 by 打电话给SEVIS
EAC = 23,127
WAC = 24,546
Total = 47,673

4/26 Updated: (# Receipts until 4/25 midnight) 楼主今天还是没有抽到。。

EAC: 20,678
WAC: 21,754. 1point3acres
Total: 42,432


4/25 Updated: (# Receipts until 4/24 midnight) 楼主今天没有抽到
EAC: 18,878
WAC: 20,206
Total: 39,084


4/24 Update:
EAC: 15,468
WAC: 17,447

Total: 32,915
---------------------------------------------------------------
从阿三slack里偷偷搬运到了点消息,希望对大家有用。
4/23 Updated numbers are below:
EAC: 12,306
WAC: 15,060

Total: 27,366

之后有爆出每天寄出的receipts的详细分布:
12 WAC 140:   WAC1814050592: WAC1814052727    718
13 WAC 141:   WAC1814150882: WAC1814153906    1479
14 WAC 142:   WAC1814250000: WAC1814251894    1384
16 WAC 143:   WAC1814350228: WAC1814354095    2323
17 WAC 144:   WAC1814450145: WAC1814454213    2212
18 WAC 145:   WAC1814550467: WAC1814554585    1917
19 WAC 146:   WAC1814650164: WAC1814654581    2390. 1point3acres
20 WAC 147:   WAC1814750000: WAC1814754255    1144. check 1point3acres for more.
21 WAC 148:   WAC1814850026: WAC1814852112    1493

12 EAC 135    EAC1813551222: EAC1813552153 512
13 EAC 136    EAC1813650000: EAC1813652965 1340
16 EAC 137    EAC1813750088: EAC1813753524 1717
17 EAC 138    EAC1813850000: EAC1813853557 2210
18 EAC 139    EAC1813950000: EAC1813953466 2290
19 EAC 140    EAC1814050000: EAC1814053734 2304
20 EAC 141    EAC1814150000: EAC1814153244 1933

第一列是日期
第二列是center code
第三列是BDay
第四列第五列是case number  的range
第六列是当天处理的总数

希望大家都抽中..


























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wangzx001 2018-4-24 04:57:11 | 显示全部楼层
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总结下 WAC 每周工作6天而 EAC只工作5天, 所以一周USCIS的两个center 正常处理的 case 是21933个,
假如这个速度不变且总名额是8.5万的话,那么在5月9号左右case处理完, 如果5月18号没任何消息,大概率GG.
假如这个速度不变且总名额是10万的话,那么在5月15号左右case处理完, 如果5月25号没任何消息,一首凉凉送给你自己。

补充内容 (2018-4-26 02:23):
OMG, 这周一和周二的速度简直是飞速阿, 照这个速度下周五(5月4号)就能把8.5万个数据录入完

补充内容 (2018-5-11 03:56):
一首凉凉送给我自己,来年再战!

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ohhelenguo 2018-4-24 07:47:16 | 显示全部楼层
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感谢分享!上周三四的时候打开论坛就很多人说凉凉啊什么的,也不知道是真的悲观和消极,还是那种学霸考试明明考的很好却要说自己考的很烂的心理一样。。。反正hin不爽这种。。。让我们大家慢慢的耐心等好消息不好吗?
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fionaphdgogogo 2018-4-25 02:38:08 | 显示全部楼层
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ohhelenguo 发表于 2018-4-24 07:47
感谢分享!上周三四的时候打开论坛就很多人说凉凉啊什么的,也不知道是真的悲观和消极,还是那种学霸考试明 ...

学霸是觉得自己考的不好实际上已经比别人好了,所以招人烦。而h1b抽签没有人有底啊。。。 是真的悲观和消息把,, 多一些理解把。
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是不是说明还有希望?~
bless bless~希望等到好消息阿阿阿阿~
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Thanks for sharing. Although I always hesitate to trust Mr. Three, it seems to be reasonable. Be patient everyone! Good luck!
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不明觉厉,顶一个先
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shiehjason 2018-4-24 03:20:33 | 显示全部楼层
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卧草。。。留个名
不得不说 USCIS的大爷大妈效率真低
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谢谢楼主分享。。。希望这个是真的。 是真的就太好了
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希望是真的!还有希望还有希望
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弱弱的问一句啥叫EAC和WAC?哪个是加州处理中心的代码?
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为什么4/21大周六的加州还在处理case啊?
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