民调显示，尽管经济不景气，选民在经济问题上仍对特朗普保持较高的认可

在高失业率和经济复苏放缓的情况下，特朗普总统在民意调查中继续在经济问题上获得比他的前任奥巴马总统、小布什总统、老布什总统更高的分数。

美国中西部、南部和西南部的州将会是本次选举的关键战场。这些州中大部分都在今年夏天因为疫情、失业以及工资和储蓄减少而苦苦挣扎。历史证明，艰难时期将对现任总统寻求连任构成威胁。然而，民意调查数据以及对选民和专家的采访表明，多种因素正在促使特朗普在经济问题上的支持率不降反增。尤其是保守派选民，他们继续认为特朗普是成功的商人和谈判专家。这些选民中有许多人赞扬了特朗普在疫情之前对经济的管理，并且没有将疫情导致的损失归咎于特朗普。

调查显示，与民主党选民或独立选民相比，构成特朗普选民基础的那部分美国人失业的比例较小。这种差距一定程度上是由种族驱动的——疫情对非裔和拉丁裔社区造成了更严重的损害。另一方面，也可能反映出地区差异。根据华盛顿经济创新组织（Economic Innovation Group）对人口普查数据的分析，那些在2016年大选中支持特朗普的、居住在较为农业化的州的小企业主们在疫情中遭受的经济损失，比蓝州的小企业主要小。


It is an enduring political question amid a pandemic recession, double-digit unemployment and a recovery that appears to be slowing: Why does President Trump continue to get higher marks on economic issues in polls than his predecessors Barack Obama, George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush enjoyed when they stood for re-election?

Mr. Trump’s relative strength on the economy, and whether Joseph R. Biden Jr. can cut into it over the next 10 weeks, are among the crucial dynamics in battleground states in the Midwest and the Sun Belt that are expected to decide the election. Many of these states have struggled this summer with rising coronavirus infection and death rates as well as job losses and vanishing wages and savings — hard times that, history suggests, will pose a threat to an incumbent president seeking re-election.

Yet polling data and interviews with voters and political analysts suggest that a confluence of factors are raising Mr. Trump’s standing on the economy issue,
The president has built an enduring brand with conservative voters, in particular, who continue to see him as a successful businessman and tough negotiator. Many of those voters praise his economic stewardship before the pandemic hit, and they do not blame him for the damage it has caused.

Polling suggests that Americans who form Mr. Trump’s voter base are less likely to have lost a job or income than Democratic or independent voters. That divergence is partially driven by race — the coronavirus crisis has disproportionately harmed Black and Latino workers, who lean heavily Democratic — but may also reflect regional divides. Small business owners in small, more rural states that backed Mr. Trump in the 2016 election report less economic damage from the crisis than those in larger blue states, according to an analysis of census survey data by the Economic Innovation Group in Washington.  source

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