2019H1B抽签结束以及申请数量公布

收到了USICSsubscribe的邮件。 说今年受到了201011份申请……
感到了瑟瑟发抖。

补充内容 (2019-4-12 06:15):
原文：USCIS Completes the H-1B Cap Random Selection Process for FY 2020 and Reaches the Advanced Degree Exemption CapOn April 10, USCIS used a computer-generated random selection process to select enough H-1B petitions to meet the congressionally-mandated regular cap and the U.S. advanced degree exemption for fiscal year (FY) 2020. After completing the random selection process for the regular cap, USCIS also determined that it has received a number of petitions projected as sufficient to meet the 20,000 H-1B visa U.S. advanced degree exemption, also known as the master’s cap.USCIS received 201,011 H-1B petitions during the filing period, which began April 1, including petitions filed for the advanced degree exemption. USCIS announced on April 5 that it had received enough petitions to reach the congressionally mandated H-1B regular cap of 65,000.In accordance with the new H-1B regulation, USCIS first conducted the selection process for H-1B cap-subject petitions submitted on behalf of all beneficiaries, including those that may have been eligible for the advanced degree exemption. USCIS then selected a number projected to reach the advanced degree exemption from the remaining eligible petitions. USCIS will reject and return all unselected petitions with their filing fees unless the petition is a prohibited multiple filing.USCIS will continue to accept and process petitions that are otherwise exempt from the cap. Petitions filed for current H-1B workers who have been counted previously against the cap, and who still retain their cap number, are exempt from the FY 2020 H-1B cap. USCIS will continue to accept and process petitions filed to:Extend the amount of time a current H-1B worker may remain in the United States;Change the terms of employment for current H-1B workers;Allow current H-1B workers to change employers; andAllow current H-1B workers to work concurrently in a second H-1B position.

原文：
USCIS Completes the H-1B Cap Random Selection Process for FY 2020 and Reaches the Advanced Degree Exemption Cap

On April 10, USCIS used a computer-generated random selection process to select enough H-1B petitions to meet the congressionally-mandated regular cap and the U.S. advanced degree exemption for fiscal year (FY) 2020. After completing the random selection process for the regular cap, USCIS also determined that it has received a number of petitions projected as sufficient to meet the 20,000 H-1B visa U.S. advanced degree exemption, also known as the master’s cap.

USCIS received 201,011 H-1B petitions during the filing period, which began April 1, including petitions filed for the advanced degree exemption. USCIS announced on April 5 that it had received enough petitions to reach the congressionally mandated H-1B regular cap of 65,000.

In accordance with the new H-1B regulation, USCIS first conducted the selection process for H-1B cap-subject petitions submitted on behalf of all beneficiaries, including those that may have been eligible for the advanced degree exemption. USCIS then selected a number projected to reach the advanced degree exemption from the remaining eligible petitions. USCIS will reject and return all unselected petitions with their filing fees unless the petition is a prohibited multiple filing.

USCIS will continue to accept and process petitions that are otherwise exempt from the cap. Petitions filed for current H-1B workers who have been counted previously against the cap, and who still retain their cap number, are exempt from the FY 2020 H-1B cap. USCIS will continue to accept and process petitions filed to:

Extend the amount of time a current H-1B worker may remain in the United States;
Change the terms of employment for current H-1B workers;
Allow current H-1B workers to change employers; and
Allow current H-1B workers to work concurrently in a second H-1B position.

简单算了一下，假设adv和reg的数量相等，分别为100506和100505，第一轮抽签adv和reg抽中概率和人数比例相关，那adv抽中的概率是
65000/201011+（1-65000/201011）*20000/（100506-65000/2）=32.3%+21.5%=53.8%

如果adv是reg的两倍（按照redbus2us目前报的人数比例），那adv抽中的概率是
65000/201011+（1-65000/201011）*20000/（134008-65000*0.67）=32.3%+15%=47.3%

顺便附上一张自己算的Adv。抽中概率图：（公式是）

x轴表示Adv. petition和 Total pettion的比例 （前者占后者的比例，即x=0表示Adv.申请0份，x=1表示Adv.申请201011份）

已知Adv. petition>25000也就是x>0.0995, 并且x<=1

可见概率区间在42.286%到100%之间

（不是学数学的所以计算公式可能不对，有错请指出，先提前感谢）

以为楼主发的是二进制呢

感谢楼主还有各位的分享......昨天是焦虑的失眠，今天终于可以流着泪失眠了～～～～

三抽的我希望我和大家都能抽中呀！！！

擦……不是各种消息源都预测会在19万左右吗

我的天我现在真的是两眼一摸黑要晕的状态

sevp还是没变化，是不是凉了...

20万和预测的差不多啊

lupintan 发表于 2019-4-12 06:19
sevp还是没变化，是不是凉了...

按往常情况 sevp下周才更新 先别方……

还有其他人收到同样的信息吗？ 邮箱并没有收到这份更新，也没有看到官网上有更新。

刷了一天没等到消息，直到刷出楼主的贴子。。好紧张啊啊啊 希望上天保佑自己能抽中！！

抽签结束了？那一般什么时候会得到消息？