武汉向世界展示了病毒过后经济复苏的一种可能性

武汉在重新开放三个月后的不平衡经济复苏让世界看到了遏制冠状病毒后城市回归正常的艰难。尽管一些工厂在整个封锁期间都在工作，且整个武汉市到了4月份已经恢复了正常活动，但是截至5月武汉的工厂产出、零售额和出口额远未达到去年的水平，私人消费依然滞后于工厂生产。4月8日，武汉的隔离结束，对中国来说是一个胜利的时刻，也是中国成功地将致命病毒控制在最初爆发地的表现。然而，虽然工厂和办公室很快就恢复了营业，但消费者回流速度较慢，在76天的封锁后，居民们都很谨慎，在家做饭和网上购物等习惯依然存在。然后，就在人们开始更多地到户外活动时，5月突然出现的新感染群再次让这座城市紧张起来。限制措施又回来了，当地政府在短短两周内对全市1100万人口进行了检测。中国民生银行北京分行研究员温彬说：“武汉经济和中国其他地区的发展轨迹表明，病毒后的恢复将是快速的，但同时也会是双轨的。在恢复期间，新感染的小规模爆发或许会继续发生，但它可能不会影响宏观的经济复苏势头。“现在，武汉地铁的乘客数量还不到病毒发生前的一半，不过正在稳步回升。其中一个原因可能是人们倾向于开私家车而不是乘坐公共交通，以避免与陌生人接触。

Three months after it reopened its economy, Wuhan’s uneven recovery offers a glimpse of the hard road back to normality for cities after containing the coronavirus. As of May, factory output, retail sales and exports in the city were nowhere near the same level as last year. That’s even though some factories worked throughout the lockdown and normal activity had resumed by April. Private consumption continued to lag factory production, mirroring the divergence seen across China. The end of Wuhan’s quarantine on April 8 was a triumphant moment for China and an important show of confidence that it had successfully contained the deadly virus in the place where it first broke out. While factories and offices quickly got back to business, consumers were slower to return, with residents cautious and habits such as cooking at home and shopping online persisting after the 76-day lockdown. Then, just as people were beginning to venture outside more -- with social distancing and temperature checks a new regular fixture -- the sudden emergence of a new cluster of infections in May once again put the city on edge. Restrictions returned, and the local government tested the entire population of 11 million in just two weeks. Since then, the city hasn’t reported a single case. “The trajectory of Wuhan’s economy and the rest of China show the post-virus recovery will be rapid albeit on a two-track path,” said Wen Bin, a researcher at China Minsheng Banking Corp in Beijing. “Small outbreaks of new infections will likely continue to take place during the recovery, but it probably won’t impact broad economic momentum.”  source

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