美国养老金资金缺口巨大，房地产的估值变得艰难

COVID-19引起的房地产交易急剧放缓使得公共养老基金的投资者们发现计算手中所持有的房地产价值变得愈加困难。根据各个州的退休系统估计：作为商场的房地产将在第二季度失去部分价值；学生住房的价值将下降；而随着越来越多的人在网上购物，电子商务配送中心的房地产价值将上升。

美国的养老金已经面临重大的资金缺口。根据美联储的数据，截至第一季度，养老金距离承诺给退休人员的金额还差4.9万亿美元。这一缺口源于多年来过于乐观的投资假设和政府吝啬于给年度退休基金缴费。在过去20年里，养老基金将州和地方政府工作人员的退休资金投入到房地产和其他私人资产中，以弥补亏空并达到回报目标。根据Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service的数据，房地产持有量在美国公共养老金投资组合中的占比已从2007年的3.8%攀升至2020年第一季度的6.1%。这一份额相当于美联储报告的州和地方政府养老金总持有量4万亿美元中的2400多亿美元。因此，房地产资产的估值方式对美国养老金有重大影响。任何估值伤的减少都可能降低回报率，并增加养老金资金缺口，并进一步增加各州和城市的退休成本。更糟糕的事，COVID-19大流行病正在加速消耗养老基金，并粉碎市政预算。

With Covid-19 and the dramatic slowdown in deal making, investors are finding it more difficult to calculate the value of real-estate holdings. Pension giant California Public Employees’ Retirement System is projecting malls will lose some of their value in the second quarter, according to an internal estimate. The Arizona State Retirement System predicts the value of distribution centers for e-commerce will rise as more people shop online. The investment chief of the Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund is expecting the worth of student housing to drop. How assets are valued has major consequences for the nation’s pensions. Any reduction could lower returns and add to funding shortfalls, increasing retirement costs for states and cities while the pandemic is draining pension funds and crushing municipal budgets.

U.S. pensions were already facing major funding gaps. Pensions are $4.9 trillion short of what they have promised retirees as of the first quarter, according to the Federal Reserve. The shortfall stems from years of over-optimistic investment assumptions and government decisions to skimp on annual retirement fund contributions. Over the last two decades, pension funds poured state and local government workers’ retirement money into real estate and other private assets in an effort to cover shortfalls and meet return targets. Real-estate holdings have climbed to 6.1% of U.S. public-pension portfolios in the first quarter from 3.8% in 2007, according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service. That share equates to more than $240 billion of the total $4 trillion in state and local government pension holdings reported by the Federal Reserve.  source

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