兰德智库最新报告建议美国：应该与中国和解，同时韬光养晦等待时机

Implementing Restraint
　　Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint.





补充内容 (2021-2-3 21:25):
大家看到了太多中美之间的鹰派言论，现在看看鸽派的。另外，这个兰德智库可是个专门研究军事的，极少发布鸽派报告的。

补充内容 (2021-2-3 21:28):
可以到 这个 RAND 官网链接，免费下载该报告的电子版eBook。

哈哈哈，美国要是敢这么做，一带一路给你插满红旗

yiziliuxian 发表于 2021-2-5 02:32
所以从这个意义上说中国目前的体制比美国更适合当全球霸主，提供全球公共服务并且收取全球铸币税，因为共 ...

是的。

CCP党很大程度上不受制于国内的“短期”民意。但显然，中国成为霸主后，能让人民感受到中长期巨大的实惠和利益。

客观的说，中国防疫这么成功，经济建设能几十年稳定成长，除了东方文明比较认可“精英主义和权威主义”之外，CCP几十年来打造出了一个不错的品牌，在绝大多数时候，确实值得信赖。所以，人民比较相信，也比较愿意接受“延迟满足！”

而，西式制度，除了极少数几个国民思辨能力很强的国家，其他绝大部分执政党，都不得不，十分短视的，都没有办法遴选和培养政治家的。




补充内容 (2021-3-1 08:24):
"短期"民意，基本是比较反智，容易被裹挟和忽悠的，所以，必须也应当，被一定程度地抑制。

兰德智库报告全文的大致脑洞是：
1，美国回撤，让欧亚大陆+大洋洲，该怎么乱就怎么乱吧。美国只要利用当前的影响力，维系住全球的核武控就行。有所不为。
2，美国回到1919年之前的那个样子，执行“光荣孤立主义”，向全世界各个山头势力，销售武器和其他制造业产品科技产品，振兴美国就业。
3，美国韬光养晦，奉行实用主义，等候到，当年的一战末期和二战末期那样，只用到最后时刻收割红利即可。（人才归属的红利 和 资产保全的红利）
4，但没有谈及，这么个思路，对于美元的影响：也许兰德认为，美国成为全世界最安全的经济体，那么美元汇率美元指数不受影响。但我觉得，也许在回撤之时，可能带来美元的挤兑踩踏，搞不好崩盘。

报告链接：https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-1.html



补充内容 (2021-2-3 14:44):
可以到 这个 RAND 官网链接，免费下载该报告的电子版eBook。

　　The United States is facing several national security challenges at the same time that the federal budget is under pressure because of public health and infrastructure crises. In response to these challenges, there has been growing public interest in rethinking the U.S. role in the world. Under one option, a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would adopt a more cooperative approach toward other powers, reduce the size of its military and forward military presence, and end or renegotiate some of its security commitments. To help U.S. policymakers and the public understand this option, the authors of this report explain how U.S. security policies toward key regions would change under a grand strategy of restraint, identify key unanswered questions, and propose next steps for developing the policy implications of this option.
　　The authors find that regional policy under a grand strategy of restraint varies depending on the level of U.S. interests and the risk that a single powerful state could dominate the region. Because of China's significant military capabilities, advocates of restraint call for a greater U.S. military role in East Asia than in other regions. The authors recommend that advocates of a grand strategy of restraint should continue to develop their policy recommendations. In particular, they should identify what changes in great-power capabilities and behavior would imperil U.S. vital interests, maritime areas where the United States should retain superiority, priorities for peacetime military activities, and war scenarios that should guide U.S. Department of Defense planning.

Recommendations
- Evaluate the core claims underlying a grand strategy of restraint to validate and refine its policy prescriptions.
- Develop risk mitigation strategies to hedge against the possibility that one of the core assumptions of a grand strategy of restraint is fully or partially incorrect.
- Specify the conditions under which the United States would stop military retrenchment or even increase its military engagement within each region.
- Clarify what changes in great-power capabilities and behavior would constitute a serious threat to vital U.S. interests.
- Provide guidance on whether and how to respond to China's, Russia's, and Iran's gray zone activities.
- Identify the maritime areas where the United States should retain superiority.
- Offer prescriptions on how the United States should evaluate threats and operate in the space and cyber domains.
- Identify scenarios to guide U.S. Department of Defense planning and U.S. force posture decisions.
- Provide priorities for U.S. military peacetime activities, such as exercises.
- Develop policies toward Africa, the Americas, and the Arctic.
- Develop proposals on trade and other international economic issues.
- Assess the cost savings associated with core policy prescriptions.

强国最终会变成弱国，早晚的事，无常

让，都可以让