美国GDP预计会暴跌33%，失业救济情况不容乐观

周四，美国政府官员报告，第二季度美国国内生产总值创下历史上最大萎缩，7月中旬有1700万美国人申请州政府失业救济金。美国国内生产总值的下降，若按年率来计算，达到了惊人的32.9%，然而失业救济金的申请数字还在增加——申领继续救济金的人数增加了近90万，这表明美国从经济崩溃中复苏的希望，正在被大部分地区的病毒复发所破灭。即使第三季度GDP很可能会出现大幅度的反弹，给人以强劲复苏的错觉，但这种收益可能是短暂的。而前景或许会变得更加糟糕。疫情中至关重要的“救济生命线”——每周额外的600美元失业救济金——即将到期，而立法者们在同意另一项经济刺激计划的方面进展甚微。

ING金融市场首席国际经济学家James Knightley说：“这是三重打击：一是来自COVID-19的恐惧在上升，要如何改变人们的行为；第二，失业率在上升，因为各州都在陆续暂停重新开放；第三，收入减少和福利到期。” 所有这些对美国总统特朗普来说都是坏消息，他在11月3日大选前的民调已经落后于他的民主党竞争对手拜登。在GDP报告公布的前几分钟，特朗普曾在推特中建议推迟大选投票，然而只有国会才有权利这么做，他的建议也很快被其他领导人否决。这条推特在一定程度上凸显了一位总统的愤怒——他眼睁睁看着美国长达十年的经济扩张在他手里突然结束。

The full scope of the pandemic’s toll on the U.S. economy was on display Thursday, when government officials reported that gross domestic product shrank the most on record in the second quarter and 17 million Americans claimed state unemployment benefits in mid-July. While the GDP drop -- an astounding 32.9% when annualized -- was widely anticipated at this point, the jobless claims figure was not. The almost 900,000 increase in the number of people claiming continued benefits provides the latest evidence that the nascent recovery from the collapse is being undermined by the resurgence of the virus across much of the U.S. That’s particularly visible in rising continued claims from California, the most populous state, that may reflect renewed shutdowns and job losses. These figures indicate that even though third-quarter GDP could very well show a sharp initial rebound and give the appearance of a strong recovery, the gains could be short-lived. And the outlook may get even worse. Crucial lifelines in the pandemic, like the extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits, are expiring, and lawmakers have made little progress on agreeing to another stimulus package. Support from Congress has buoyed the economy in recent months, and further action will be critical in determining the path of the recovery.

“You’ve got this triple whammy coming through,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Financial Markets. “One is the fear factor from Covid-19 on the rise and how that changes people’s behavior. Secondly, you’ve got unemployment rising because states are reversing course on their reopenings. And then, third, you’ve got the income squeeze” with expiring benefits. All of this is bad news for President Donald Trump, who was already trailing his rival, Democrat Joe Biden, in polls ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Minutes after the GDP report was released, Trump suggested in a tweet that the vote be delayed until the pandemic eases and people can “safely vote” in person rather than by mail. While Trump doesn’t have the authority to make such a decision -- only Congress does and its leaders immediately rejected the idea -- the tweet in part underscores the angst of a president who saw a decade-long economic expansion end abruptly under his watch.  source

指尖新闻：高信噪比，一目了然

新冠疫情追踪