用美国式的方法反对F1新规

受https://www.1point3acres.com/bbs/thread-673147-1-1.html 的影响，以美国大学常见的APDA式辩论赛的打法写了篇驳论为什么DHS的新规应该被反对。语法什么的各位多多指点，写完以后没有仔细校对过

I strongly oppose the new regulation releasedby DHS and USCIS that changing the staying admission of F/J/I students from D/S to a fixed time period.
DHS is releasing the new regulation because of two reasons. The first is that DHS believes there are more and more international students pursing overstay. The second is that DHS does not have the ability to monitor the large amount number of international students, thus they need to change the currentpolicy to prevent overstay of international students. However, from the datapublished by DHS, the new regulation has nothing to help with those two aspects.
Firstly, according to the Entry/Exit Overstay Report published by DHS, the overstay rate of F/M/J students has experienced a 24.43% drop from 2016 to 2019, which is a very significant drop. In 2016, there are totally 38,869 out-of-country overstays and 40,949 suspectedin-country overstays.[ii] In2019, the number of out-of-country overstays drops 20.88% to 30,754, and the numberof suspected in-country overstays drops 27.82% to 29,557. In 4 years, the total number of overstays has decreased 19,507, which is a quite significant number. Fromthe ratio aspect, in 2016 the total overstay rate is 5.48% and it decreases43.61% to 3.09% in 2019, which is quite impressive. In conclusion, the overstay problem of F/M/J students is totally under control with current policies and there seems to be no reasons to change it with a cost as high as $237.8 million.[iii]
Secondly, the new regulation will not help reduce the burden of DHS. On the other hand, it will incredibly increase the workload of DHS. The current D/S admission for F/I/J students has provided students more flexibility to adjust their study, such as transfer, graduate study, OPT after graduation, etc, with very little paper work from DHS. With the new regulation, DHS is still required to finish those paper work, while at the same time, they will have to handle a lot of additional applications. Since the new regulation will only issue admission of stay until the end of current study program, students who changes their initial study plan, which is a very common case for many students, are very likely to apply an extension of their study to prevent overstay. It can be expected that the number of applications of form I-539, Application to Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status, will significantly increase. Currently, the average process time of I-539 from F/M visaholders is 5 months to 10 months. DHS claims they do not have the ability tomonitor and oversee that large amount of F/J/I visa holders[iv], and the long process time has somehow proven that DHS is experiencing a lack of human power to handle all the cases. It is very illogical to increase theburden of DHS with the new regulation.
Besides, the new regulation is quite unlikely to help reduce the overstay rate of F/J/I students. For those legal students, the new regulation has done nothing good to them but only distracting them from their study. For those students intend to overstay, there is no difference for them to overstay a D/S time period or a fixed time period, whether it is 2 years or 4 years. As is mentioned before, the total overstay rate of F/M/J students has already been very low now and DHS has not shown how their new regulation will stop those students planning to overstay under D/S from overstaying under a fixed timeperiod.
To make the matters worse, the new regulation will greatly harm the interest of the United States.
First, the new regulation will increase theuncertainty of international students. This will not only harm international students but also US colleges and universities. About 31.89% of PhD students inUS universities are international students (17604 of 55195) according to datafrom National Science Foundation.[v] The increase of uncertainty for those PhD students will undoubtedly decrease their work efficiency, thus makes US science less competitive. Also, such uncertainty will decrease the interest of potential students who are planning to further their study in the United States and they may switch to other countries, such as UK, France, Germany, Japan, Singapore etc. The decrease in the number of international students will not only lower the income of US colleges and universities, but more importantly, make US students not able to get in touchwith the diverse mind from all around the world.
Second, the new regulation may distract DHS from more important cases. As is mentioned before, DHS expect $229.9 million to$237.8 million to support the new regulation. However, the E-Verify system from USCIS will only cost $118.7 in FY 2021[vi], which is almost half of the cost of the new regulation. It is very unwise to invest such large amount of money in such an unwise way, especially under currentsituation that even USCIS is short of money.
Third, the new regulation will de facto cancel the OPT program and STEM OPT extension. The new regulation stops international students from legally staying in the United Stated after their graduation, which means students must first apply their OPT, and after their OPT is approved, they must apply form I-539 to make them legal to stay in the United States. As is mentioned before, it usually takes half a year for USCIS to handle extension of stay application cases. It is quite obvious that very few companies can wait a potential candidate for such a long time, no need to say that with the new regulation, there must be a large increase in the number of I-539 applicationsand it will take even longer time for USCIS to handle that large volume of applications. Thus, the new regulation is very likely to de facto cancel the OPT program. The OPT program provides international students a chance to practice their abilities learnt from the classroom, which not only makes themselves more competitive but also US degrees more competitive, and even more, US companiesmore competitive because they are offered a larger pool of potential candidates. It is a very unwise idea to cancel OPT de facto.
In conclusion, there are no necessarily to change the current policy because the current policy has already done a goodjob to prevent overstay of international students without any extra resource required. DHS cannot prove that the new policy can do a better job than thecurrent one in reducing the overstay rate of international students. If the new regulation is passed, it will do much harm to US academics, US science, US companies and even DHS itself. The new regulation is a very bad idea and it should not betaken into practice.

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https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-20845/p-65

[ii] https://www.dhs.gov/sites/defaul ... l%20Year%202016.pdf
.1point3acres
[iii] https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-20845/p-125

[iv] https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-20845/p-75

[v] https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf20301/data-tables

[vi] https://www.dhs.gov/sites/defaul ... _2021_dhs_bib_0.pdf


主要从以下几个点讲的
需求性：国际学生的overstay率很低，无需改变现有政策。DHS缺少人手无力监控大量留学生，新政下对DHS压力更大。
根属性&解决力：对于非法滞留学生，滞留D/S也是非法滞留，滞留2年/4年也是非法滞留，DHS无法证明新政比旧政能更好地防止overstay
损益比：增加留学生的不确定性，其成本不仅由留学生承担，更由学校和美国科学界承担；新政会增加DHS工作量，使之无法更好保护美国；新政会事实上取消OPT，留学生无法实习锻炼技能进一步导致美国学位的含金量下降，影响美国大学收入，同时因为人才市场变小影响美国企业的竞争力

非常solid的理由。要是大家都能参考到自己的comment里就好了

论坛这格式是怎么回事，复制上来的怎么老是少空格却引用啥的。上传了一份PDF版，版主们看到了能手动改一改不

lz很可，收藏！！

楼主太牛了！学习了！

自顶一发，希望能有更多的朋友看到能更好地来提意见